Nance, Tommy
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.60 |
| ERA current pace | 3.86 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.67 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 36.4% | 112 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 33.8% | 104 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 29.9% | 92 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.46 |
| K% Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 20.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 143 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.2% | 14.4% to 28.5% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.9% to 12.6% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 20.7% | 17.7% to 28.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 0.91 | 0.00 to 1.55 | +/- 0.77 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.330 | 0.261 to 0.376 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 3.3% to 14.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| ERA | 4.32 | 1.50 to 5.68 | +/- 2.09 |
| FIP | 3.78 | 2.48 to 3.58 | +/- 0.55 |
| WHIP | 1.217 | 1.042 to 1.642 | +/- 0.300 |
237 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 17.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |
330 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 9.7% |