Mithrandir Metrics
Player Arizona Diamondbacks Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks

Ryne Nelson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 184 lb · Age 28

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Arizona Diamondbacks Position P Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241064.2428251150.21261.25
2025733.3933231154.01321.07
2026354.971515083.1621.24
5 Seasons29234.30108932550.14321.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.97
ERA rolling p504.73
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.72 4.20 4.73 5.27 5.75
FIP
4.07 4.35 4.66 4.97 5.24
K%
17.2% 18.3% 19.5% 20.7% 21.8%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
67
ERA4.97
26
BB%5.9%
88
K%19.2%
29
xwOBA allowed0.349
16 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
15 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed43.7%
20
Whiff%17.6%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+111
96
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Cutter Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nelson, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.349 2026-07-06: 0.3492026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3492026-07-11: 0.3492026-07-12: 0.3492026-07-13: 0.3492026-07-14: 0.3492026-07-15: 0.3492026-07-16: 0.3492026-07-17: 0.349 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nelson, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.7%Slider: 19.9%Curveball: 9.7%Cutter: 9.4%Sinker: 3.4% FF58% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 20%CU 10%FC 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphCutter: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mphSinker: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.5% 639 111 qualified
SL 20.5% 228 103 qualified
FC 9.2% 102 103 limited sample
CB 9.0% 100 100 limited sample
SI 3.8% 42 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 3"
Weight184 lb
Debut2022-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.78
K% Δ-0.011

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.377
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.349

Nelson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.377, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.349 — a gap of 0.027, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 92 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-244-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.3% K | 4.19 ERAProjection