Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Nelson, Ryne

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.3% K%
Range
17.5% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 28 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.97
ERA rolling p504.73
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.72 4.20 4.73 5.27 5.75
FIP
4.07 4.35 4.66 4.97 5.24
K%
17.2% 18.3% 19.5% 20.7% 21.8%
BB%
5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
67
ERA4.97
26
BB%5.9%
88
K%19.2%
29
xwOBA allowed0.349
16 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
15 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed43.7%
20
Whiff%17.6%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+111
96
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Cutter Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nelson, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.349 2026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3492026-07-11: 0.3492026-07-12: 0.3492026-07-13: 0.3492026-07-14: 0.3492026-07-15: 0.3492026-07-16: 0.3492026-07-17: 0.3492026-07-18: 0.349 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nelson, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.7%Slider: 19.9%Curveball: 9.7%Cutter: 9.4%Sinker: 3.4% FF58% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 20%CU 10%FC 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphCutter: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mphSinker: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.5% 639 111 qualified
SL 20.5% 228 103 qualified
FC 9.2% 102 103 limited sample
CB 9.0% 100 100 limited sample
SI 3.8% 42 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 62%, Slider 14%, Curveball 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.78
K% Δ-0.011
Sample91.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.6----
Batters Faced327----
K%20.3%17.5% to 26.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%6.7%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.6%16.3% to 22.8%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.350.88 to 1.98+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3190.288 to 0.348+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.8% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.193.15 to 5.94+/- 1.40
FIP4.073.19 to 4.80+/- 0.80
WHIP1.3211.089 to 1.537+/- 0.224
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1031 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1082 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%20.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.2%