Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Nelson, Ryne

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.3% K%
Range
17.5% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.65
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight57%
ERA
3.52 3.99 4.52 5.04 5.52
FIP
4.07 4.34 4.64 4.94 5.21
K%
17.9% 19.1% 20.4% 21.8% 23.0%
BB%
5.3% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
82
Barrel allowed12.1%
9 -29 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
79
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
26
K%20.8%
37
Whiff%18.3%
15
xwOBA allowed0.350
18 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+110
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nelson, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3342026-05-19: 0.3342026-05-21: 0.3432026-05-23: 0.3432026-05-24: 0.3432026-05-25: 0.3332026-05-26: 0.3332026-05-28: 0.3332026-05-29: 0.3332026-05-30: 0.3332026-05-31: 0.3332026-06-01: 0.350 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nelson, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 58.9%Slider: 18.4%Curveball: 9.8%Cutter: 9.3%Sinker: 3.6% MIX FF 59%SL 18%CU 10%FC 9%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 0.9FFSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.7SLCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.2CUFC: HB 0.2, IVB 1.6FCSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.0SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 58.1% 536 112 qualified
SL 18.9% 174 102 limited sample
FC 9.3% 86 103 limited sample
CB 9.3% 86 99 limited sample
SI 4.3% 40 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 62%, Slider 14%, Curveball 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.46
K% Δ+0.004
Sample74.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.7----
Batters Faced323----
K%20.3%17.5% to 26.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%6.7%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.6%16.3% to 22.8%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.350.88 to 1.98+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3190.288 to 0.348+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.8% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.193.14 to 5.94+/- 1.40
FIP4.073.19 to 4.80+/- 0.80
WHIP1.3211.089 to 1.537+/- 0.224
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1031 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1082 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%20.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.2%