Mithrandir Metrics
Player Baltimore Orioles Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles

Tyler Wells

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 8", 270 lb · Age 31

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Baltimore Orioles Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024025.8733015.1131.37
2025212.9144021.2180.88
2026212.96360345.2471.05
6 Seasons20203.85135508362.03361.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.46 3.03 3.65 4.28 4.84
FIP
2.90 3.31 3.77 4.23 4.64
K%
21.4% 23.1% 25.0% 26.9% 28.7%
BB%
3.7% 4.5% 5.4% 6.3% 7.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
88
ERA3.02
76
BB%5.6%
91
K%27.2%
80 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.289
73 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
67 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
82
Whiff%28.7%
87 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+108
90
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Cutter Stuff+105
75
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+103
55
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wells, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-07: 0.2972026-07-08: 0.2972026-07-09: 0.2972026-07-10: 0.2962026-07-11: 0.2942026-07-12: 0.2942026-07-13: 0.2892026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.2892026-07-17: 0.2892026-07-18: 0.289 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wells, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Cutter: 27.3%Changeup: 22.7%Slider: 16.0%Curveball: 4.5% FF29% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 29%FC 27%CH 23%SL 16%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCutter: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSlider: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.8% 168 106 limited sample
FC 26.6% 136 105 limited sample
CH 20.3% 104 108 limited sample
SL 16.0% 82 103 limited sample
CB 4.3% 22 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 8"
Weight270 lb
Debut2021-04-04
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.34
K% Δ+0.035

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.282
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.289

Wells’s wOBA-against sits at 0.282, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.289 — a gap of 0.007, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 45 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-03-08Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.7% K | 4.36 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs AZ2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs SF1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ CWS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CWS0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP