Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Wells

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 8", 270 lb · Age 32

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024025.8733015.1131.37
2025212.9144021.2180.88
2026322.62520565.1650.95
6 Seasons21213.751515010381.23541.02
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal6 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.22 2.78 3.40 4.02 4.58
FIP
2.98 3.39 3.84 4.29 4.70
K%
21.7% 23.3% 25.0% 26.7% 28.2%
BB%
4.2% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 7.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.94
95
ERA2.70
86
BB%6.2%
87
K%26.5%
80 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
48 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
85
Whiff%28.8%
89 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Cutter Stuff+107
92
Slider Stuff+104
69
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wells, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.274 2026-08-21: 0.2782026-08-22: 0.2782026-08-23: 0.2782026-08-24: 0.2782026-08-25: 0.2752026-08-26: 0.2752026-08-27: 0.2772026-08-28: 0.2772026-08-29: 0.2772026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.2742026-09-01: 0.274 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wells, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.5%Changeup: 22.6%Slider: 15.5%Curveball: 4.4% FC29% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 29%FF 28%CH 23%SL 16%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSlider: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.5% 211 108 qualified
FC 28.5% 191 107 limited sample
CH 20.0% 134 106 limited sample
SL 15.7% 105 104 limited sample
CB 4.3% 29 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 8"
Weight270 lb
Debut2021-04-04
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.69
K% Δ+0.028

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.265
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.274

Wells’s wOBA-against sits at 0.265, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.274 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 66 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-03-08Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.7% K | 4.37 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs AZ2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs SF1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ CWS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CWS0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP