Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Wells, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal6 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.21 2.77 3.39 4.01 4.57
FIP
2.98 3.38 3.83 4.28 4.69
K%
21.7% 23.2% 24.9% 26.5% 28.1%
BB%
4.3% 5.1% 5.9% 6.7% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.94
96
ERA2.70
85
BB%6.5%
85
K%26.2%
78 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.271
88 +45 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
50 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed32.6%
89
Whiff%28.7%
89 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Cutter Stuff+107
92
Slider Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wells, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.271 2026-08-22: 0.2782026-08-23: 0.2782026-08-24: 0.2782026-08-25: 0.2752026-08-26: 0.2752026-08-27: 0.2772026-08-28: 0.2772026-08-29: 0.2772026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.2742026-09-01: 0.2742026-09-02: 0.271 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wells, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.4%Changeup: 22.7%Slider: 15.3%Curveball: 4.5% FC29% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 29%FF 28%CH 23%SL 15%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSlider: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.1 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.5% 211 108 qualified
FC 28.5% 191 107 limited sample
CH 20.0% 134 106 limited sample
SL 15.7% 105 104 limited sample
CB 4.3% 29 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Changeup 23%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ+0.025
Sample67.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.3----
Batters Faced249----
K%23.7%18.9% to 30.0%+/- 5.5%
BB%5.8%3.4% to 8.4%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.8%20.0% to 29.6%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.570.92 to 2.28+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3180.263 to 0.333+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.0% to 13.7%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.392.60 to 5.94+/- 1.67
FIP4.053.14 to 5.57+/- 1.22
WHIP1.0900.793 to 1.444+/- 0.326
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

586 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%21.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

827 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.6%
BB%4.0%
Barrel10.9%