Mithrandir Metrics
Player St. Louis Cardinals Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals

Matthew Liberatore

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 215 lb · Age 26

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club St. Louis Cardinals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024344.40606086.0761.27
20258124.2129290151.21221.31
20265135.4127270134.21411.47
5 Seasons21374.86147800468.24131.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace5.41
ERA rolling p505.09
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.90 4.47 5.09 5.72 6.28
FIP
3.82 4.09 4.39 4.69 4.96
K%
21.1% 22.1% 23.1% 24.2% 25.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA5.41
18
BB%7.9%
64
K%24.0%
64 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
25
Barrel allowed9.4%
22
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
20
Whiff%22.3%
47 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Curveball Stuff+102
47
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+104
65
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-23: 0.3372026-08-24: 0.3372026-08-25: 0.3362026-08-26: 0.3362026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3392026-09-01: 0.3392026-09-02: 0.3392026-09-03: 0.339 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.6%Slider: 25.7%Curveball: 17.1%Changeup: 13.6%Sinker: 8.4%Cutter: 4.0% FF31% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 26%CU 17%CH 14%SI 8%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.5 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphSinker: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.5 mphFC90 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.0 mphFS87 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.8% 552 102 qualified
SL 25.8% 464 104 qualified
CB 17.2% 309 102 qualified
CH 13.6% 244 106 qualified
SI 8.2% 148 108 limited sample
FC 4.3% 78 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 4"
Weight215 lb
Debut2022-05-21
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.90
K% Δ+0.053

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.366
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.339

Liberatore’s wOBA-against sits at 0.366, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.027, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 137 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-08-30Slider played up through SL/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.7% K | 4.51 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs CLE4 ER / 2 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ WSH4 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs NYM1 ER / 2 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs TB1 ER / 2 K5.0 IP