Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Liberatore, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace5.41
ERA rolling p505.09
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.90 4.47 5.09 5.72 6.28
FIP
3.82 4.09 4.39 4.69 4.96
K%
21.1% 22.1% 23.1% 24.2% 25.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA5.41
18
BB%7.9%
64
K%24.0%
64 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
25
Barrel allowed9.4%
22
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
20
Whiff%22.3%
47 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Curveball Stuff+102
47
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+104
65
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Sinker Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-23: 0.3372026-08-24: 0.3372026-08-25: 0.3362026-08-26: 0.3362026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3392026-09-01: 0.3392026-09-02: 0.3392026-09-03: 0.339 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.6%Slider: 25.7%Curveball: 17.1%Changeup: 13.6%Sinker: 8.4%Cutter: 4.0% FF31% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 26%CU 17%CH 14%SI 8%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.5 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphSinker: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.5 mphFC90 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.0 mphFS87 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.8% 552 102 qualified
SL 25.8% 464 104 qualified
CB 17.2% 309 102 qualified
CH 13.6% 244 106 qualified
SI 8.2% 148 108 limited sample
FC 4.3% 78 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.90
K% Δ+0.053
Sample136.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.1----
Batters Faced324----
K%18.7%16.8% to 25.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.9%5.1% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%17.8% to 24.6%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.350.83 to 1.90+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.295 to 0.362+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.9% to 11.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.512.78 to 5.87+/- 1.54
FIP4.283.13 to 4.60+/- 0.73
WHIP1.3261.037 to 1.528+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

399 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1161 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%18.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.5%