Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Matt Festa

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 195 lb · Age 33

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024615.70190023.2241.23
2025544.12630054.2561.08
2026233.61580157.1621.29
7 Seasons15104.2422913229.12441.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA3.81
56
BB%6.1%
89
K%24.3%
66
xwOBA allowed0.299
67
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
40
Whiff%22.9%
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+106
80
Cutter Stuff+96
9
Sinker Stuff+97
15
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Festa, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-08-21: 0.3122026-08-22: 0.3122026-08-23: 0.3122026-08-24: 0.3122026-08-25: 0.3042026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3002026-08-28: 0.3002026-08-29: 0.3002026-08-30: 0.2992026-08-31: 0.2992026-09-01: 0.299 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Festa, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.8%Sweeper: 39.1%Sinker: 7.0%Cutter: 5.5%Slider: 0.5%Unknown: 0.1% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%ST 39%SI 7%FC 5%SL 1%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphSinker: 7% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCutter: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 72.0 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.8% 248 103 qualified
SL 42.8% 242 106 qualified
FC 6.9% 39 96 limited sample
SI 6.5% 37 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lb
Debut2018-07-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.363
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.299

Festa’s wOBA-against sits at 0.363, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.064, 2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 58 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.6% K | 3.92 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs HOU1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ STL1 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs KC0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs CHC0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP