Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Matt Festa

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 195 lb · Age 33

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024615.70190023.2241.23
2025544.12630054.2561.08
2026114.30300129.1321.19
7 Seasons1484.4320113201.12141.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal5 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace4.33
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.49 3.33 4.26 5.19 6.02
FIP
3.14 3.58 4.07 4.55 4.99
K%
18.9% 21.0% 23.3% 25.6% 27.6%
BB%
5.0% 6.4% 7.9% 9.4% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
49
ERA4.33
37
BB%6.4%
81 +32 vs proj
K%24.1%
61
xwOBA allowed0.299
64
Barrel allowed8.5%
39
Fastball velo92.1
18
Hard-hit allowed36.2%
68
Whiff%22.0%
43
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Cutter Stuff+95
5
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+104
63
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Festa, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-06-01: 0.3112026-06-02: 0.3112026-06-03: 0.3112026-06-04: 0.3062026-06-05: 0.2992026-06-06: 0.2912026-06-07: 0.2912026-06-08: 0.2912026-06-09: 0.2912026-06-10: 0.2912026-06-11: 0.2942026-06-12: 0.299 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Festa, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 42.4%4-Seam Fastball: 41.0%Cutter: 7.7%Sinker: 7.7%Slider: 1.0%Unknown: 0.2% ST42% · 83 mphprimary pitch ST 42%FF 41%FC 8%SI 8%SL 1%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphSinker: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 72.0 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.3% 182 104 limited sample
FB 40.8% 164 103 limited sample
FC 7.7% 31 95 limited sample
SI 6.2% 25 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lb
Debut2018-07-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.42
K% Δ+0.015

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.391
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.299

Festa’s wOBA-against sits at 0.391, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.092, 2.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 31 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.6% K | 3.91 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs HOU1 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ STL1 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs KC0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs CHC0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP