Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Festa, Matt

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal5 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace3.99
ERA rolling p504.12
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.40 3.21 4.12 5.02 5.84
FIP
3.19 3.62 4.09 4.57 4.99
K%
18.4% 20.2% 22.3% 24.4% 26.3%
BB%
5.2% 6.4% 7.8% 9.1% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
30
ERA3.99
51
BB%6.5%
82 +33 vs proj
K%21.7%
45
xwOBA allowed0.328
36 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.4%
26 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
20
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
49
Whiff%21.0%
34 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Slider Stuff+105
75
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Festa, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3212026-07-10: 0.3282026-07-11: 0.3282026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.3282026-07-17: 0.3282026-07-18: 0.328 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Festa, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.5%Sweeper: 40.9%Cutter: 8.8%Sinker: 7.9%Slider: 0.8%Unknown: 0.2% FF42% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 42%ST 41%FC 9%SI 8%SL 1%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mphCutter: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphSinker: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 72.0 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.4% 202 105 qualified
FB 39.1% 174 103 limited sample
FC 8.8% 39 96 limited sample
SI 6.7% 30 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 39%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ-0.010
Sample39.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.9----
Batters Faced150----
K%22.6%17.4% to 30.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.7%4.5% to 13.0%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.1%18.7% to 28.7%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.000.44 to 1.89+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3100.250 to 0.347+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.0% to 11.1%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.912.34 to 7.17+/- 2.41
FIP3.702.62 to 5.16+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2281.011 to 1.608+/- 0.298
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

314 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.3%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

469 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.2%
BB%7.0%
Barrel6.6%