Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Festa, Matt

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace3.78
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.25 3.07 3.97 4.88 5.69
FIP
2.80 3.23 3.70 4.18 4.60
K%
19.8% 21.4% 23.1% 24.8% 26.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.6% 7.7% 8.8% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
44
ERA3.78
59
BB%6.9%
79 +28 vs proj
K%23.4%
59
xwOBA allowed0.305
60
Barrel allowed7.8%
43
Fastball velo92.7
23
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
57
Whiff%23.3%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Slider Stuff+105
74
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Sinker Stuff+98
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Festa, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.305 2026-10-04: 0.3052026-10-05: 0.3052026-10-06: 0.3052026-10-07: 0.3052026-10-08: 0.3052026-10-09: 0.3052026-10-10: 0.3052026-10-11: 0.3052026-10-12: 0.3052026-10-13: 0.3052026-10-14: 0.3052026-10-15: 0.305 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Festa, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.8%Sweeper: 39.6%Sinker: 6.5%Cutter: 4.6%Slider: 0.4%Unknown: 0.1% FF49% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 40%SI 6%FC 5%SL 0%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Festa, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 72.0 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.5% 326 102 qualified
SL 43.2% 310 105 qualified
SI 5.9% 42 98 limited sample
FC 5.4% 39 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 39%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.13
K% Δ+0.006
Sample67.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.2----
Batters Faced156----
K%22.6%17.4% to 30.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.7%4.5% to 13.0%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.1%18.7% to 28.7%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.000.44 to 1.89+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3100.250 to 0.347+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.0% to 11.1%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.922.34 to 7.17+/- 2.41
FIP3.702.62 to 5.16+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2351.011 to 1.608+/- 0.298
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

314 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.3%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

469 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.2%
BB%7.0%
Barrel6.6%