Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2022-09-17 |
Player profile / St. Paul Saints
Matt Wallner
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 28
Club St. Paul Saints
Position RF
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 261 | 26 | 57 | 13 | 3 | .259 | .372 | .523 | .895 |
| 2025 | 392 | 47 | 68 | 22 | 4 | .202 | .311 | .464 | .775 |
| 2026 | 135 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 0 | .167 | .259 | .292 | .551 |
| 5 Seasons | 1107 | 133 | 211 | 55 | 10 | .223 | .333 | .461 | .794 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
63
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.292
0.310
0.328
0.344
wOBA
0.273
0.296
0.322
0.347
0.371
ISO
0.158
0.178
0.201
0.223
0.243
K%
28.9%
31.0%
33.4%
35.8%
37.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
65
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%42.3%
65
xBA0.358
83
xSLG0.597
76
xwOBA0.281
25
-50 vs proj
BB%7.9%
42
-32 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
88
K%37.1%
2
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · RF
10
Arm Strength99.3 · RF
93
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
4
Range Runs-3.2 · RF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · RF
18
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
63
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
55
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.054 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.013 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Wallner’s wOBA sits at 0.322, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.041, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 151 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.335 xwOBA | 21 HR | Projection |