Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Troy Melton

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 210 lb · Age 25

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025322.76164045.2361.01
2026731.861616097.0801.01
2 Seasons1052.1432200142.21161.01
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal7 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace1.60
ERA rolling p502.48
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.33 1.87 2.48 3.09 3.64
FIP
3.13 3.56 4.05 4.53 4.97
K%
18.5% 19.8% 21.3% 22.8% 24.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6% 9.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
92
ERA1.60
98
BB%7.3%
72 +23 vs proj
K%20.9%
42
xwOBA allowed0.287
79 +53 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
74 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
61
Whiff%23.2%
54
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+104
58
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+104
70
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.287 2026-08-21: 0.2722026-08-22: 0.2722026-08-23: 0.2722026-08-24: 0.2722026-08-25: 0.2792026-08-26: 0.2792026-08-27: 0.2872026-08-28: 0.2872026-08-29: 0.2872026-08-30: 0.2872026-08-31: 0.2872026-09-01: 0.287 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.4%Cutter: 21.9%Slider: 17.3%Changeup: 11.4%Sinker: 8.7%Curveball: 7.3% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 22%SL 17%CH 11%SI 9%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.1% 198 104 limited sample
FC 22.2% 125 101 limited sample
SL 17.2% 97 104 limited sample
SI 10.5% 59 101 limited sample
CB 9.6% 54 104 limited sample
CH 5.5% 31 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 4"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-07-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.65
K% Δ+0.014

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.276
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.287

Melton’s wOBA-against sits at 0.276, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.287 — a gap of 0.011, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 96 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-08-26Slider played up through SL/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.7% K | 4.25 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs CWS3 ER / 4 K4.1 IP