Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Melton, Troy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
17.5% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal7 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace1.60
ERA rolling p502.48
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.33 1.88 2.48 3.09 3.64
FIP
3.13 3.56 4.05 4.53 4.97
K%
18.5% 19.8% 21.3% 22.8% 24.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
91
ERA1.60
98
BB%7.3%
73 +24 vs proj
K%20.9%
42
xwOBA allowed0.287
79 +52 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
75 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
61
Whiff%23.2%
54
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+93
9
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+104
58
Sinker Stuff+101
42
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.287 2026-08-20: 0.2722026-08-21: 0.2722026-08-22: 0.2722026-08-23: 0.2722026-08-24: 0.2722026-08-25: 0.2792026-08-26: 0.2792026-08-27: 0.2872026-08-28: 0.2872026-08-29: 0.2872026-08-30: 0.2872026-08-31: 0.287 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.4%Cutter: 21.9%Slider: 17.3%Changeup: 11.4%Sinker: 8.7%Curveball: 7.3% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 22%SL 17%CH 11%SI 9%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.1% 198 104 limited sample
FC 22.2% 125 101 limited sample
SL 17.2% 97 104 limited sample
SI 10.5% 59 101 limited sample
CB 9.6% 54 104 limited sample
CH 5.5% 31 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.272 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 21%, Sinker 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.65
K% Δ+0.012
Sample96.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.0----
Batters Faced288----
K%19.6%17.5% to 29.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%9.0%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.1%19.3% to 28.7%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.431.06 to 2.20+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3360.280 to 0.351+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.9% to 12.4%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.252.13 to 5.32+/- 1.59
FIP4.643.25 to 5.79+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3750.894 to 1.582+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%17.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%20.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel8.8%