Mithrandir Metrics
Player COL Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / COL

Juan Mejia

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club COL Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025223.96550161.1681.26
2026265.74381442.1441.56
2 Seasons484.699315103.21121.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.74
ERA rolling p504.74
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.38 4.02 4.74 5.46 6.10
FIP
3.11 3.51 3.95 4.39 4.78
K%
20.0% 21.9% 24.0% 26.1% 28.0%
BB%
8.1% 9.4% 10.7% 12.0% 13.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
14
ERA5.74
14
BB%11.3%
21 -15 vs proj
K%23.2%
55
xwOBA allowed0.317
46
Barrel allowed4.0%
92 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%26.0%
73
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mejia, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-07: 0.3182026-07-08: 0.3182026-07-09: 0.3182026-07-10: 0.3182026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.3172026-07-18: 0.317 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mejia, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.9%Sweeper: 37.5%Sinker: 7.3%Changeup: 3.3%Slider: 2.9% FF49% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 38%SI 7%CH 3%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.4 mphST84 mphSinker: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.2 mphCH93 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 266 99 qualified
SL 43.2% 256 102 qualified
SI 7.9% 47 103 limited sample
CH 4.0% 24 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.45
K% Δ-0.017

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.337
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.317

Mejia’s wOBA-against sits at 0.337, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.317 — a gap of 0.020, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 43 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-04-164-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 4.32 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-09 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-06 vs HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-04 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB