Mejia, Juan
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.93 |
| ERA current pace | 4.62 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.17 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 44.6% | 229 | 102 | qualified |
| FB | 42.9% | 220 | 101 | qualified |
| SI | 9.0% | 46 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 3.5% | 18 | 109 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.30 |
| K% Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 27.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 162 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.9% | 20.6% to 33.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 6.0% to 14.0% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 25.2% | 21.5% to 32.9% | +/- 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.21 | 0.63 to 1.85 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.262 to 0.341 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.1% | 3.8% to 10.3% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 4.32 | 2.63 to 6.46 | +/- 1.92 |
| FIP | 3.91 | 3.01 to 5.36 | +/- 1.17 |
| WHIP | 1.363 | 1.073 to 1.694 | +/- 0.311 |
126 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
135 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 25.4% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |