Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Mejia, Juan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
20.6% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace4.62
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.76 3.43 4.17 4.92 5.59
FIP
3.02 3.43 3.89 4.34 4.76
K%
19.9% 22.1% 24.5% 26.8% 29.0%
BB%
8.1% 9.4% 11.0% 12.5% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
13 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.8%
91 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
91
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
46
K%24.0%
60
Whiff%28.1%
84 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.313
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mejia, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2912026-05-19: 0.2912026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.2972026-05-24: 0.2972026-05-25: 0.2972026-05-26: 0.2982026-05-28: 0.2982026-05-29: 0.2982026-05-30: 0.2982026-05-31: 0.3102026-06-01: 0.313 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mejia, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.5%Sweeper: 41.9%Sinker: 8.5%Changeup: 3.7%Slider: 2.4% MIX FF 44%ST 42%SI 8%CH 4%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.1, IVB 1.4FFST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.3STSI: HB 0.8, IVB 1.9SICH: HB -0.4, IVB 2.0CHSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.7SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.6% 229 102 qualified
FB 42.9% 220 101 qualified
SI 9.0% 46 102 limited sample
CH 3.5% 18 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 67%, Sweeper 33%, Changeup 0%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.30
K% Δ-0.008
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.9----
Batters Faced162----
K%24.9%20.6% to 33.6%+/- 6.5%
BB%9.6%6.0% to 14.0%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.2%21.5% to 32.9%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.210.63 to 1.85+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3040.262 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.8% to 10.3%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.322.63 to 6.46+/- 1.92
FIP3.913.01 to 5.36+/- 1.17
WHIP1.3631.073 to 1.694+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

126 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.3%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.241
K%25.4%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.4%