Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Spencer Strider

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 195 lb · Age 27

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Injured 60-Day Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024007.002209.0121.67
20257144.4523230125.11311.40
2026425.3188039.0461.36
6 Seasons43263.8698850494.06721.18
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace5.31
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight41%
ERA
3.25 3.82 4.45 5.08 5.65
FIP
3.22 3.83 4.50 5.17 5.78
K%
23.8% 25.6% 27.7% 29.7% 31.6%
BB%
7.8% 8.8% 9.8% 10.9% 11.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA5.31
18
BB%12.0%
17 -38 vs proj
K%27.7%
83
xwOBA allowed0.291
72 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
64
Whiff%26.1%
73 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+100
32
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Slider Stuff+99
30
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Strider, Spencer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-07: 0.2912026-07-08: 0.2912026-07-09: 0.2912026-07-10: 0.2912026-07-11: 0.2912026-07-12: 0.2912026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2912026-07-17: 0.2912026-07-18: 0.291 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Strider, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.6%Slider: 27.6%Curveball: 14.5%Changeup: 10.3% FF48% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 28%CU 14%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 263 101 qualified
SL 26.3% 142 99 limited sample
CB 15.4% 83 100 limited sample
CH 9.5% 51 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 0"
Weight195 lb
Debut2021-10-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.55
K% Δ+0.008

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.352
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.291

Strider’s wOBA-against sits at 0.352, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.291 — a gap of 0.062, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching62026-05-26Four-Seam Fastball played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.9% K | 3.76 ERAProjection
2026-03-11 vs TB0 ER / 5 K4.0 IP