Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Strider, Spencer

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
22.3% to 33.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace5.31
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight41%
ERA
3.25 3.82 4.45 5.08 5.65
FIP
3.22 3.83 4.50 5.17 5.78
K%
23.8% 25.6% 27.7% 29.7% 31.6%
BB%
7.8% 8.8% 9.8% 10.9% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA5.31
18
BB%12.0%
17 -38 vs proj
K%27.7%
83
xwOBA allowed0.291
72 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
64
Whiff%26.1%
73 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+100
32
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Slider Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Strider, Spencer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-07: 0.2912026-07-08: 0.2912026-07-09: 0.2912026-07-10: 0.2912026-07-11: 0.2912026-07-12: 0.2912026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2912026-07-17: 0.2912026-07-18: 0.291 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Strider, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.6%Slider: 27.6%Curveball: 14.5%Changeup: 10.3% FF48% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 28%CU 14%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 263 101 qualified
SL 26.3% 142 99 limited sample
CB 15.4% 83 100 limited sample
CH 9.5% 51 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 35%, Curveball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.55
K% Δ+0.008
Sample37.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.4----
Batters Faced612----
K%26.9%22.3% to 33.9%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.4%6.3% to 11.3%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%29.7%27.7% to 36.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.320.73 to 2.06+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3110.255 to 0.349+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.2% to 13.1%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.762.79 to 6.14+/- 1.68
FIP3.772.58 to 6.14+/- 1.78
WHIP1.2521.002 to 1.572+/- 0.285
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1077 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%25.1%
BB%9.6%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

993 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel10.0%