Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Strider, Spencer

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
22.3% to 33.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.46
ERA rolling p503.72
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.48 3.07 3.72 4.37 4.96
FIP
2.87 3.49 4.18 4.88 5.50
K%
24.7% 26.7% 28.9% 31.1% 33.1%
BB%
7.9% 8.9% 10.0% 11.1% 12.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.3%
9 -46 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
25
Fastball velo95.3
68
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
79
K%31.2%
94
Whiff%29.3%
87
xwOBA allowed0.272
83 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Strider, Spencer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2622026-05-24: 0.2622026-05-25: 0.2622026-05-26: 0.2622026-05-28: 0.2652026-05-29: 0.2652026-05-30: 0.2652026-05-31: 0.2652026-06-01: 0.272 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Strider, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.8%Slider: 26.3%Curveball: 15.4%Changeup: 9.5% MIX FF 49%SL 26%CU 15%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Strider, Spencer · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.1FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8SLCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.3CUCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.4CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 263 101 qualified
SL 26.3% 142 98 limited sample
CB 15.4% 83 99 limited sample
CH 9.5% 51 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 35%, Curveball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.30
K% Δ+0.043
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.7----
Batters Faced609----
K%26.9%22.3% to 33.9%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.4%6.3% to 11.3%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%29.7%27.7% to 36.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.320.73 to 2.06+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3110.255 to 0.349+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.2% to 13.1%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.762.79 to 6.14+/- 1.68
FIP3.772.58 to 6.14+/- 1.78
WHIP1.2521.002 to 1.572+/- 0.285
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1077 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%25.1%
BB%9.6%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

993 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel10.0%