Mithrandir Metrics
Player STL Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / STL

Nelson Velázquez

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 190 lb · Age 27

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club STL Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20231793538170.235.302.586.888
2024230314182.200.274.366.640
202665101440.246.323.509.832
4 Seasons68096131357.215.290.440.730
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
97
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
87
Defense1 metrics
6
Speed1 metrics
55
Plate skills9 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
xwOBA preseason0.288
xwOBA current pace0.394
xwOBA rolling p500.316
Observed weight26%
xwOBA
0.266 0.290 0.316 0.342 0.366
wOBA
0.391 0.426 0.464 0.502 0.536
ISO
0.134 0.168 0.207 0.245 0.280
K%
17.7% 20.9% 24.5% 28.1% 31.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
91 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%64.2%
100 +43 vs proj
xBA0.398
96
xSLG0.791
98
xwOBA0.394
99 +71 vs proj
BB%9.0%
54 +17 vs proj
Bat speed73.5
92
K%21.8%
54 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Arm Runs0.1 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-2.8 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
55
Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
50
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Velázquez, Nelson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.394 2026-07-07: 0.4182026-07-08: 0.4202026-07-09: 0.4232026-07-10: 0.4072026-07-11: 0.4072026-07-12: 0.3942026-07-13: 0.3942026-07-14: 0.3942026-07-15: 0.3942026-07-16: 0.3942026-07-17: 0.3942026-07-18: 0.394 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

23 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Velázquez, Nelson · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsPull 22%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 5.02026-03-15 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -29.02026-03-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 23.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -10.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -13.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 55.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 12.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -46.02026-03-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 18.02026-03-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 14.02026-03-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 113.2 / LA 9.02026-05-31 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -8.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 9.02026-05-31 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 12.02026-05-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.3 / LA -44.02026-06-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 10.02026-06-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 33.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 18.02026-06-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 23.02026-06-24 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 1.02026-06-24 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 38.02026-06-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 28.02026-06-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 10.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Velázquez, Nelson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 64%64% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.108
wOBA Δ+0.178
Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting22026-06-30Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.286 xwOBA | 10 HRProjection
2026-03-21 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E2-3 | K
2026-03-19 vs WSH0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E2-3 | BB, RBI, R
2026-03-18 vs HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-3