Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Isaac Mattson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 214 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024005.063005.161.13
2025332.45440047.2451.13
2026004.26330031.2281.42
4 Seasons333.44840089.0821.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.40
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.90 3.59 4.36 5.12 5.81
FIP
2.72 3.43 4.22 5.01 5.72
K%
17.8% 19.8% 22.0% 24.2% 26.2%
BB%
7.4% 8.7% 10.2% 11.6% 12.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
29
ERA4.40
40
BB%10.6%
29
K%19.7%
31 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.371
7 -40 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
9
Whiff%18.3%
13 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+95
11
Curveball Stuff+105
97
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Slider Stuff+84
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mattson, Isaac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.371 2026-07-08: 0.3832026-07-09: 0.3832026-07-10: 0.3772026-07-11: 0.3772026-07-12: 0.3772026-07-13: 0.3732026-07-14: 0.3702026-07-15: 0.3702026-07-16: 0.3712026-07-17: 0.3712026-07-18: 0.3712026-07-19: 0.371 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 73%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mattson, Isaac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 72.9%Slider: 11.1%Changeup: 9.5%Sweeper: 6.5% FF73% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 73%SL 11%CH 10%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 73% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 78.8% 298 101 qualified
CH 9.5% 36 95 limited sample
SL 6.1% 23 84 limited sample
CB 5.6% 21 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 2"
Weight214 lb
Debut2021-05-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.02
K% Δ-0.025

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.337
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.371

Mattson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.337, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.371 — a gap of 0.033, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 32 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.2% K | 4.42 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ CHC0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs SD0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-06 vs SD0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs BAL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP