Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Mattson, Isaac

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.12
ERA rolling p504.27
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.74 3.46 4.27 5.08 5.81
FIP
2.40 3.15 3.98 4.81 5.56
K%
17.2% 19.4% 21.8% 24.3% 26.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.8% 10.4% 12.0% 13.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.6%
18
Barrel allowed10.6%
19 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed50.0%
3
K%17.9%
19 -31 vs proj
Whiff%17.6%
10 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.383
4 -42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 80%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mattson, Isaac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3842026-05-19: 0.3832026-05-21: 0.3832026-05-23: 0.3832026-05-24: 0.3832026-05-25: 0.3832026-05-26: 0.3832026-05-28: 0.3832026-05-29: 0.3832026-05-30: 0.3832026-05-31: 0.3832026-06-01: 0.383 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mattson, Isaac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 80.5%Changeup: 9.1%Curveball: 5.6%Slider: 4.8% MIX FF 80%CH 9%CU 6%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.4CHCU: HB -0.2, IVB 3.4CUSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.7SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 80.7% 288 100 qualified
CH 9.2% 33 94 limited sample
CB 5.9% 21 107 limited sample
SL 4.2% 15 75 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.274 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 78%, Changeup 12%, Slider 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.30
K% Δ-0.043
Sample21.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.4----
Batters Faced142----
K%22.2%16.8% to 29.2%+/- 6.2%
BB%10.1%6.8% to 14.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%21.8%16.6% to 26.8%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.190.32 to 1.79+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3170.264 to 0.348+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.5% to 11.3%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.421.67 to 5.65+/- 1.99
FIP4.102.98 to 7.09+/- 2.05
WHIP1.3860.927 to 1.609+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

123 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%19.6%
BB%11.2%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%20.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.1%