Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalli

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 223 lb · Age 28

Cards
28
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20220114.541104.161.85
2025314.251010048.2401.48
20261253.1229290152.21771.20
3 Seasons1573.6340400205.22231.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.26 2.83 3.45 4.08 4.64
FIP
2.71 3.07 3.46 3.85 4.20
K%
22.3% 23.4% 24.6% 25.8% 26.8%
BB%
5.7% 6.2% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
72
ERA3.21
76
BB%7.0%
77
K%27.0%
81 +53 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
64
Barrel allowed7.6%
48
Fastball velo96.6
82
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
31
Whiff%23.6%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-08-31
Curveball Stuff+103
57
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+100
31
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Cutter Stuff+106
90
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-08-20: 0.3072026-08-21: 0.3072026-08-22: 0.3072026-08-23: 0.3072026-08-24: 0.3072026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3052026-08-28: 0.3052026-08-29: 0.3052026-08-30: 0.3022026-08-31: 0.303 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.0%Knuckle Curve: 27.1%Sweeper: 13.3%Sinker: 12.9%Changeup: 7.7%Cutter: 5.9% FF33% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 33%KC 27%ST 13%SI 13%CH 8%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 86.1 mphKC86 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 86.2 mphST86 mphSinker: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.6 mphFC94 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.6 mphCS78 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.1 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.0% 624 103 qualified
CB 29.3% 554 103 qualified
SL 13.5% 255 100 qualified
SI 12.7% 240 103 qualified
CH 8.5% 160 103 limited sample
FC 3.1% 58 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 4"
Weight223 lb
Debut2022-08-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.22
K% Δ+0.080

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.318
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.303

Cavalli’s wOBA-against sits at 0.318, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.016, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 155 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching282026-08-29Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/KC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.9% K | 4.43 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ PIT4 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL1 ER / 3 K4.2 IP
2026-04-01 @ PHI1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ CHC2 ER / 5 K3.2 IP