Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Cavalli, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
13.4% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.83
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.84 3.35 3.93 4.50 5.01
FIP
2.66 3.00 3.38 3.75 4.09
K%
19.6% 20.8% 22.2% 23.6% 24.9%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
46
ERA3.83
54
BB%7.1%
74
K%24.5%
64 +38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
48
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
45
Whiff%22.0%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Knuckle Curve: 27.3%Sinker: 15.5%Sweeper: 11.1%Changeup: 8.1%Cutter: 2.9% FF35% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 35%KC 27%SI 15%ST 11%CH 8%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 85.5 mphKC85 mphSinker: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.6 mphST86 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphFC93 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.6 mphCS78 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.1 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.4% 478 103 qualified
CB 28.8% 389 102 qualified
SI 15.4% 208 103 qualified
SL 11.7% 158 98 limited sample
CH 8.7% 118 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckle Curve 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.40
K% Δ+0.055
Sample101.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.4----
Batters Faced631----
K%19.0%13.4% to 25.0%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.0%4.1% to 9.1%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.9%19.0% to 27.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.480.76 to 2.02+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3070.252 to 0.346+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.9%2.3% to 8.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.232.68 to 5.62+/- 1.47
FIP4.462.80 to 4.74+/- 0.97
WHIP1.3221.056 to 1.575+/- 0.259
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.219
K%13.7%
BB%5.2%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

136 career BF

xwOBA0.218
K%13.8%
BB%4.4%
Barrel3.2%