Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckle Curve 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 19%.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Cavalli, Cade
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team WSH
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.10 |
| ERA current pace | 3.62 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.83 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
ERA
2.78
3.28
3.83
4.38
4.88
FIP
2.59
2.92
3.28
3.64
3.97
K%
18.4%
19.8%
21.5%
23.1%
24.6%
BB%
5.7%
6.4%
7.2%
8.0%
8.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
64
Barrel allowed7.5%
55
Fastball velo96.3
80
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
54
K%24.2%
61
+37 vs proj
Whiff%23.1%
51
xwOBA allowed0.314
49
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
35%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 34.5% | 379 | 104 | qualified |
| CB | 29.7% | 326 | 101 | qualified |
| SI | 15.3% | 168 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 11.6% | 127 | 96 | limited sample |
| CH | 8.8% | 97 | 104 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.61 |
| K% Δ | +0.052 |
| Sample | 67.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 138.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 628 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.0% | 13.4% to 25.0% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.1% to 9.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 22.9% | 19.0% to 27.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.48 | 0.76 to 2.02 | +/- 0.63 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.307 | 0.252 to 0.346 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.9% | 2.3% to 8.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.23 | 2.68 to 5.62 | +/- 1.47 |
| FIP | 4.46 | 2.80 to 4.74 | +/- 0.97 |
| WHIP | 1.322 | 1.056 to 1.575 | +/- 0.259 |
vs LHH
148 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHH
136 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 13.8% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |