Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 5", 218 lb · Age 26

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025442.71268069.2711.25
2026933.4919190113.11281.11
2 Seasons1373.2045270183.01991.16
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal5 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.53 3.06 3.65 4.24 4.77
FIP
2.52 2.93 3.40 3.86 4.28
K%
24.4% 25.5% 26.8% 28.2% 29.3%
BB%
5.3% 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
81
ERA3.49
64
BB%5.6%
91 +36 vs proj
K%28.1%
85 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
80 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
70
Fastball velo97.0
88
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
36
Whiff%25.3%
70 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+105
90
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+107
86
Sinker Stuff+106
86
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-06: 0.2782026-07-07: 0.2782026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2782026-07-10: 0.2782026-07-11: 0.2782026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.2832026-07-17: 0.283 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.0%Curveball: 26.2%Slider: 23.5%Sinker: 14.6%Split-Finger: 4.7% FF31% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 31%CU 26%SL 23%SI 15%FS 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.0 mphCU85 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.8 mphSL92 mphSinker: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.8 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.8% 359 107 qualified
CB 26.5% 290 105 qualified
SL 25.4% 278 107 qualified
SI 15.3% 168 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 5"
Weight218 lb
Debut2025-05-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.72
K% Δ+0.053

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.317
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.283

Ashcraft’s wOBA-against sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.035, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 118 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-07-11Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.8% K | 4.21 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ CHC1 ER / 9 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs BAL1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ CIN2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP