Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Ashcraft, Braxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
20.0% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace2.75
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.20 2.71 3.27 3.83 4.34
FIP
2.42 2.82 3.26 3.71 4.11
K%
23.4% 24.8% 26.3% 27.9% 29.2%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.3%
93 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
70
Fastball velo96.8
86
Hard-hit allowed37.7%
60
K%27.8%
83 +29 vs proj
Whiff%26.7%
75 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.265
87 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2712026-05-19: 0.2712026-05-21: 0.2712026-05-23: 0.2702026-05-24: 0.2702026-05-25: 0.2702026-05-26: 0.2702026-05-28: 0.2742026-05-29: 0.2742026-05-30: 0.2742026-05-31: 0.2742026-06-01: 0.265 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.5%Curveball: 24.8%Slider: 24.7%Sinker: 15.7%Split-Finger: 4.3% MIX FF 30%CU 25%SL 25%SI 16%FS 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.1FFCU: HB 0.1, IVB 4.0CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.3SLSI: HB 0.5, IVB 1.8SIFS: HB -1.3, IVB 2.2FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.0% 333 107 qualified
CB 25.8% 261 105 qualified
SL 25.4% 257 106 qualified
SI 15.7% 159 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.46
K% Δ+0.049
Sample79.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.3----
Batters Faced297----
K%22.9%20.0% to 30.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.4%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.3%20.5% to 29.1%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.970.22 to 1.46+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3060.274 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.6% to 9.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.212.33 to 5.33+/- 1.50
FIP3.522.67 to 5.03+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3631.082 to 1.704+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

128 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel4.8%
vs RHH

165 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%21.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel4.7%