Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Ashcraft, Braxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
20.0% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.59
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.52 3.07 3.69 4.31 4.86
FIP
2.63 3.06 3.55 4.04 4.47
K%
23.2% 24.2% 25.3% 26.5% 27.5%
BB%
5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 6.7% 7.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
86
ERA3.59
65
BB%5.2%
94 +39 vs proj
K%25.7%
75 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
79 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
68
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
28
Whiff%23.5%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+106
92
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+107
94
Sinker Stuff+106
86
Slider Stuff+106
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.287 2026-08-25: 0.2872026-08-26: 0.2872026-08-27: 0.2872026-08-28: 0.2872026-08-29: 0.2872026-08-30: 0.2872026-08-31: 0.2872026-09-01: 0.2872026-09-02: 0.2872026-09-03: 0.2872026-09-04: 0.2872026-09-05: 0.287 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.3%Curveball: 26.2%Slider: 22.7%Sinker: 16.6%Split-Finger: 4.2% FF30% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 30%CU 26%SL 23%SI 17%FS 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.0 mphCU85 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.8 mphSL92 mphSinker: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 4% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.8 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.8% 413 107 qualified
CB 26.4% 354 106 qualified
SL 24.5% 328 106 qualified
SI 18.2% 244 106 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.62
K% Δ+0.028
Sample164.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.2----
Batters Faced301----
K%22.9%20.0% to 30.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.4%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.3%20.5% to 29.1%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.970.22 to 1.46+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3060.274 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.6% to 9.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.212.33 to 5.33+/- 1.50
FIP3.522.67 to 5.03+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3631.082 to 1.704+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

128 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel4.8%
vs RHH

165 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%21.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel4.7%