Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Ashcraft, Braxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
20.0% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal5 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.53 3.06 3.65 4.24 4.77
FIP
2.52 2.93 3.40 3.86 4.28
K%
24.4% 25.5% 26.8% 28.2% 29.3%
BB%
5.3% 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
81
ERA3.49
64
BB%5.6%
91 +36 vs proj
K%28.1%
85 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
80 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
70
Fastball velo97.0
88
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
36
Whiff%25.3%
70 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+105
90
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+107
86
Sinker Stuff+106
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-06: 0.2782026-07-07: 0.2782026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2782026-07-10: 0.2782026-07-11: 0.2782026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.2832026-07-17: 0.283 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.0%Curveball: 26.2%Slider: 23.5%Sinker: 14.6%Split-Finger: 4.7% FF31% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 31%CU 26%SL 23%SI 15%FS 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.0 mphCU85 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.8 mphSL92 mphSinker: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.8 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.8% 359 107 qualified
CB 26.5% 290 105 qualified
SL 25.4% 278 107 qualified
SI 15.3% 168 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.72
K% Δ+0.053
Sample118.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.9----
Batters Faced295----
K%22.8%20.0% to 30.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.4%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.3%20.5% to 29.1%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.970.22 to 1.46+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3060.274 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.6% to 9.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.212.33 to 5.33+/- 1.50
FIP3.522.67 to 5.03+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3631.082 to 1.704+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

128 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel4.8%
vs RHH

165 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%21.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel4.7%