Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Luinder Avila

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 195 lb · Age 25

Cards
8
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025111.29130014.0160.93
2026545.532112070.0611.61
2 Seasons654.823412084.0771.50
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
18
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.69
6
ERA5.53
18
BB%13.5%
9
K%19.6%
32
xwOBA allowed0.339
24
Barrel allowed5.9%
74
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
71
Whiff%22.1%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+98
19
Curveball Stuff+105
83
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+103
64
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Avila, Luinder · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-21: 0.3392026-08-22: 0.3392026-08-23: 0.3392026-08-24: 0.3392026-08-25: 0.3392026-08-26: 0.3392026-08-27: 0.3392026-08-28: 0.3392026-08-29: 0.3392026-08-30: 0.3392026-08-31: 0.3392026-09-01: 0.339 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Avila, Luinder · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.4%4-Seam Fastball: 26.0%Slider: 21.7%Curveball: 14.7%Changeup: 10.3% SI27% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 27%FF 26%SL 22%CU 15%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.4 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSlider: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.0 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.5% 145 96 limited sample
SL 28.3% 144 103 limited sample
FB 25.5% 130 107 limited sample
CB 9.0% 46 105 limited sample
CH 8.6% 44 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 3"
Weight195 lb
Debut2025-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.362
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.339

Avila’s wOBA-against sits at 0.362, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.023, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 67 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching82026-08-014-Seam Fastball played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-08 @ CLE1 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIL5 ER / 4 K3.0 IP