Avila, Luinder
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.40 |
| ERA current pace | 5.06 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.88 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 29.6% | 125 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 28.6% | 121 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 24.6% | 104 | 106 | limited sample |
| CH | 9.0% | 38 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 8.3% | 35 | 106 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 135 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.9% | 16.1% to 30.8% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 4.9% to 13.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 26.5% | 15.9% to 32.6% | +/- 8.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.07 | 0.00 to 1.86 | +/- 0.93 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.312 | 0.143 to 0.355 | +/- 0.106 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.2% | 0.5% to 9.9% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 4.27 | 0.40 to 5.46 | +/- 2.53 |
| FIP | 3.87 | 1.69 to 5.70 | +/- 2.01 |
| WHIP | 1.322 | 0.587 to 1.737 | +/- 0.575 |
25 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.148 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
31 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.144 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |