Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Avila, Luinder

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
16.1% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.40
ERA current pace5.08
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.47 3.32 4.26 5.20 6.05
FIP
2.86 3.54 4.28 5.03 5.70
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.5% 24.5% 26.4%
BB%
9.2% 10.4% 11.7% 13.0% 14.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
5
ERA5.08
24
BB%13.5%
9 -25 vs proj
K%19.9%
32 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
65
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
65
Whiff%22.0%
42 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+107
81
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+104
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Avila, Luinder · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-06: 0.3312026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3272026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.3372026-07-17: 0.337 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Avila, Luinder · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.7%Sinker: 26.0%Slider: 21.8%Curveball: 15.3%Changeup: 10.2% FF27% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SI 26%SL 22%CU 15%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphSlider: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.5% 145 96 limited sample
SL 28.3% 144 104 limited sample
FB 25.5% 130 107 limited sample
CB 9.0% 46 104 limited sample
CH 8.6% 44 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 33%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.82
K% Δ-0.040
Sample53.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.2----
Batters Faced133----
K%23.9%16.1% to 30.8%+/- 7.3%
BB%9.9%4.9% to 13.2%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%26.5%15.9% to 32.6%+/- 8.3%
HR/91.070.00 to 1.86+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.3130.143 to 0.355+/- 0.106
Barrel% Allowed7.2%0.5% to 9.9%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.260.40 to 5.47+/- 2.53
FIP3.871.69 to 5.70+/- 2.01
WHIP1.3190.587 to 1.737+/- 0.575
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

25 career BF

xwOBA0.148
K%18.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel2.2%
vs RHH

31 career BF

xwOBA0.144
K%19.0%
BB%6.0%
Barrel2.3%