Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Gus Varland

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023116.64160020.1202.11
2024103.42260026.1271.44
2026115.26280525.2241.68
3 Seasons324.98700572.1711.71
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal3 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.37
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.24 3.16 4.17 5.19 6.10
FIP
2.57 3.00 3.48 3.96 4.39
K%
18.3% 20.5% 23.0% 25.5% 27.7%
BB%
6.1% 7.4% 8.9% 10.4% 11.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
16
ERA4.37
36
BB%10.1%
35 -16 vs proj
K%21.7%
45 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.371
8 -53 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.6%
6 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
65
Hard-hit allowed49.4%
4
Whiff%21.8%
41 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+104
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Gus · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.371 2026-06-01: 0.3462026-06-02: 0.3462026-06-03: 0.3462026-06-04: 0.3462026-06-05: 0.3602026-06-06: 0.3612026-06-07: 0.3612026-06-08: 0.3522026-06-09: 0.3522026-06-10: 0.3572026-06-11: 0.3572026-06-12: 0.371 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Gus · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.5%Slider: 39.7%Changeup: 3.7% FF57% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SL 40%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.6% 179 106 limited sample
SL 44.0% 147 104 limited sample
CH 2.4% 8 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight225 lb
Debut2023-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.06
K% Δ-0.029
Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.6% K | 4.31 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ PIT0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ MIL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs LAD1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs LAD0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP