Mithrandir Metrics
Player Rochester Red Wings Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Rochester Red Wings

Gus Varland

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Rochester Red Wings Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023116.64160020.1202.11
2024103.42260026.1271.44
2026126.82330631.2301.83
3 Seasons335.63750678.1771.77
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
21
Arsenal3 metrics
76
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.68
7
ERA6.82
5
BB%9.1%
48
K%21.2%
44
xwOBA allowed0.400
1
Barrel allowed15.8%
1
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed50.0%
1
Whiff%19.1%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+105
82
Slider Stuff+104
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Gus · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.400 2026-08-21: 0.4002026-08-22: 0.4002026-08-23: 0.4002026-08-24: 0.4002026-08-25: 0.4002026-08-26: 0.4002026-08-27: 0.4002026-08-28: 0.4002026-08-29: 0.4002026-08-30: 0.4002026-08-31: 0.4002026-09-01: 0.400 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Gus · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.9%Slider: 38.9%Changeup: 3.3% FF58% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 39%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphSlider: 39% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.2% 192 106 limited sample
SL 43.5% 154 104 limited sample
CH 2.3% 8 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight225 lb
Debut2023-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.443
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.400

Varland’s wOBA-against sits at 0.443, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.400 — a gap of 0.043, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 36 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-14 @ PIT0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ MIL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs LAD1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs LAD0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP