Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 37%, Changeup 17%.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Varland, Gus
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team WSH
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.07 |
| ERA current pace | 3.80 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.98 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
2.02
2.95
3.98
5.01
5.94
FIP
2.53
2.97
3.46
3.94
4.38
K%
18.3%
20.6%
23.2%
25.7%
28.0%
BB%
5.6%
7.0%
8.5%
10.0%
11.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
48
Barrel allowed10.4%
22
-25 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
65
Hard-hit allowed49.4%
4
K%22.1%
49
Whiff%21.9%
42
-17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.346
22
-38 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
55%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 53.7% | 173 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 44.4% | 143 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 1.9% | 6 | 89 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.51 |
| K% Δ | -0.025 |
| Sample | 26.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 140 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.6% | 16.0% to 29.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 4.7% to 12.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 18.0% to 30.7% | +/- 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.37 to 2.12 | +/- 0.88 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.196 to 0.352 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 4.0% to 12.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 4.31 | 1.57 to 6.79 | +/- 2.61 |
| FIP | 3.75 | 2.43 to 4.90 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.326 | 1.016 to 1.682 | +/- 0.333 |
vs LHH
99 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHH
162 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |