Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 37%, Changeup 17%.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Varland, Gus
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team WSH
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 30
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.07 |
| ERA current pace | 6.25 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.95 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
ERA
3.07
3.96
4.95
5.94
6.83
FIP
3.22
3.64
4.10
4.57
4.99
K%
18.5%
20.5%
22.8%
25.1%
27.2%
BB%
6.1%
7.3%
8.7%
10.1%
11.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.63
9
ERA6.25
9
BB%9.3%
42
K%21.6%
44
-20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.387
3
-59 vs proj
Barrel allowed15.3%
1
-44 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed50.5%
2
Whiff%19.7%
22
-35 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+104
63
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
58%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 54.2% | 192 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 43.5% | 154 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.3% | 8 | 93 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.94 |
| K% Δ | -0.030 |
| Sample | 35.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 140 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.6% | 16.0% to 29.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 4.7% to 12.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 18.0% to 30.7% | +/- 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.31 | 0.37 to 2.12 | +/- 0.88 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.196 to 0.352 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 4.0% to 12.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 4.31 | 1.57 to 6.79 | +/- 2.61 |
| FIP | 3.75 | 2.43 to 4.90 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.324 | 1.016 to 1.683 | +/- 0.333 |
vs LHH
99 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHH
162 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |