Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Austin Warren

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 170 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024001.6960010.271.31
2025100.965009.190.96
2026134.63262035.0371.49
6 Seasons833.48692193.0841.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.43
ERA current pace4.63
ERA rolling p503.91
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.87 2.84 3.91 4.99 5.95
FIP
2.92 3.42 3.98 4.54 5.04
K%
16.4% 18.6% 21.1% 23.5% 25.7%
BB%
7.1% 8.4% 9.9% 11.4% 12.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
21
ERA4.63
33
BB%11.2%
23
K%24.8%
67 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
3 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%25.3%
68 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+104
83
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+107
85
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Austin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.350 2026-07-07: 0.3422026-07-08: 0.3422026-07-09: 0.3502026-07-10: 0.3502026-07-11: 0.3502026-07-12: 0.3502026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3502026-07-15: 0.3502026-07-16: 0.3502026-07-17: 0.3502026-07-18: 0.350 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Austin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 47.9%Sinker: 24.6%4-Seam Fastball: 15.1%Curveball: 9.7%Cutter: 1.6%Changeup: 1.0% ST48% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 48%SI 25%FF 15%CU 10%FC 2%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 48% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mphSinker: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.2 mphCU84 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 50.2% 161 107 limited sample
SI 22.1% 71 103 limited sample
FB 14.3% 46 102 limited sample
CB 10.9% 35 104 limited sample
FC 1.6% 5 104 limited sample
CH 0.9% 3 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight170 lb
Debut2021-07-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ+0.038

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.358
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.350

Warren’s wOBA-against sits at 0.358, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.350 — a gap of 0.009, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 36 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.1% K | 4.23 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ WSH2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ LAD1 ER / 1 K0.2 IP