Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 30%, Cutter 16%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Warren, Austin
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.43 |
| ERA current pace | 1.56 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.95 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
ERA
0.73
1.78
2.95
4.12
5.17
FIP
2.35
2.89
3.49
4.10
4.64
K%
15.9%
18.6%
21.5%
24.4%
27.1%
BB%
6.2%
7.8%
9.5%
11.3%
12.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
24
Barrel allowed8.2%
44
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
53
K%30.1%
91
+51 vs proj
Whiff%25.5%
68
+46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
60
+19 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
51%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 50.5% | 146 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 21.5% | 62 | 103 | limited sample |
| FB | 13.8% | 40 | 102 | limited sample |
| CB | 11.4% | 33 | 106 | limited sample |
| FC | 1.7% | 5 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 1.0% | 3 | 98 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.67 |
| K% Δ | +0.091 |
| Sample | 20.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 29.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 119 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.1% | 11.9% to 26.3% | +/- 7.2% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 5.2% to 13.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 19.8% | 11.4% to 24.5% | +/- 6.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.29 | 0.20 to 2.11 | +/- 0.95 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.324 | 0.226 to 0.386 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 3.2% to 11.6% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 4.23 | 0.00 to 5.66 | +/- 2.83 |
| FIP | 3.82 | 2.74 to 5.66 | +/- 1.46 |
| WHIP | 1.290 | 0.700 to 1.644 | +/- 0.472 |
vs LHH
101 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 10.0% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHH
179 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |