Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Warren, Austin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
11.9% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.43
ERA current pace4.63
ERA rolling p503.91
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.87 2.84 3.91 4.99 5.95
FIP
2.92 3.42 3.98 4.54 5.04
K%
16.4% 18.6% 21.1% 23.5% 25.7%
BB%
7.1% 8.4% 9.9% 11.4% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
21
ERA4.63
33
BB%11.2%
23
K%24.8%
67 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
3 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%25.3%
68 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+104
83
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Austin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.350 2026-07-07: 0.3422026-07-08: 0.3422026-07-09: 0.3502026-07-10: 0.3502026-07-11: 0.3502026-07-12: 0.3502026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3502026-07-15: 0.3502026-07-16: 0.3502026-07-17: 0.3502026-07-18: 0.350 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Austin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 47.9%Sinker: 24.6%4-Seam Fastball: 15.1%Curveball: 9.7%Cutter: 1.6%Changeup: 1.0% ST48% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 48%SI 25%FF 15%CU 10%FC 2%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 48% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mphSinker: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.2 mphCU84 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 50.2% 161 107 limited sample
SI 22.1% 71 103 limited sample
FB 14.3% 46 102 limited sample
CB 10.9% 35 104 limited sample
FC 1.6% 5 104 limited sample
CH 0.9% 3 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 30%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ+0.038
Sample35.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.7----
Batters Faced119----
K%21.1%11.9% to 26.3%+/- 7.2%
BB%9.8%5.2% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%19.8%11.4% to 24.5%+/- 6.5%
HR/91.290.20 to 2.11+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3240.226 to 0.386+/- 0.080
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.2% to 11.6%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.230.00 to 5.66+/- 2.83
FIP3.822.74 to 5.66+/- 1.46
WHIP1.2900.700 to 1.644+/- 0.472
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%14.8%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

179 career BF

xwOBA0.232
K%15.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.4%