Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Jacob Lopez

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 28

Cards
21
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024005.2341010.181.16
2025774.082117092.21131.27
2026644.7123200105.01031.46
4 Seasons14114.4552391220.12321.36
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace4.71
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.19 3.84 4.56 5.28 5.93
FIP
3.62 4.11 4.65 5.20 5.69
K%
20.4% 21.5% 22.7% 23.9% 25.0%
BB%
9.0% 9.7% 10.6% 11.4% 12.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
17
ERA4.71
32
BB%11.6%
21 -35 vs proj
K%22.0%
48 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
79 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo90.3
4
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
93
Whiff%23.8%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Cutter Stuff+100
30
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+101
40
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+101
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lopez, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-08-23: 0.2882026-08-24: 0.2882026-08-25: 0.2852026-08-26: 0.2852026-08-27: 0.2852026-08-28: 0.2852026-08-29: 0.2852026-08-30: 0.2872026-08-31: 0.2872026-09-01: 0.2872026-09-02: 0.2862026-09-03: 0.286 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lopez, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.2%Slider: 33.6%Cutter: 20.2%Changeup: 8.6%Sinker: 3.4% FF34% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 34%SL 34%FC 20%CH 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.4 mphFF90 mphSlider: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 76.3 mphSL76 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.5 mphCH83 mphSinker: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.3% 449 99 qualified
SL 32.4% 437 101 qualified
FC 20.5% 277 100 qualified
CH 9.8% 132 103 limited sample
SI 4.1% 55 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 4"
Weight220 lb
Debut2023-08-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.76
K% Δ-0.028

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.359
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.286

Lopez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.359, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.073, 2.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching212026-09-02Four-Seam Fastball played up through SL/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 3.95 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ NYM5 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs HOU3 ER / 6 K4.1 IP
2026-03-30 @ ATL3 ER / 0 K4.0 IP