Mithrandir Metrics
Player ATH Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / ATH

Jacob Lopez

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 28

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club ATH Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024005.2341010.181.16
2025774.082117092.21131.27
2026436.831411055.1431.79
4 Seasons12105.0643301170.21721.44
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace6.83
ERA rolling p505.64
Observed weight54%
ERA
4.33 4.95 5.64 6.32 6.94
FIP
4.25 4.71 5.23 5.75 6.21
K%
17.3% 18.6% 20.1% 21.5% 22.8%
BB%
9.2% 10.2% 11.3% 12.4% 13.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.92
1
ERA6.83
5
BB%13.7%
8 -47 vs proj
K%16.6%
12 -54 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Barrel allowed4.7%
88 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo90.4
5
Hard-hit allowed31.6%
91
Whiff%18.8%
16 -41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+99
31
Slider Stuff+100
34
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Cutter Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lopez, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.306 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lopez, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.5%Slider: 30.5%Cutter: 19.5%Changeup: 9.7%Sinker: 5.8% FF35% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 30%FC 20%CH 10%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.6 mphFF91 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 77.2 mphSL77 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.4 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.3 mphCH83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.8% 331 99 qualified
SL 30.4% 297 100 qualified
FC 19.7% 193 99 limited sample
CH 10.4% 102 103 limited sample
SI 5.6% 55 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.88
K% Δ-0.082

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.416
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.306

Lopez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.416, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.111, 3.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 56 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-07-10Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.8% K | 3.95 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-05 vs HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-03-30 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB