Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Lopez, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.6% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace6.83
ERA rolling p505.64
Observed weight54%
ERA
4.33 4.95 5.64 6.32 6.94
FIP
4.25 4.71 5.23 5.75 6.21
K%
17.3% 18.6% 20.1% 21.5% 22.8%
BB%
9.2% 10.2% 11.3% 12.4% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.92
1
ERA6.83
5
BB%13.7%
8 -47 vs proj
K%16.6%
12 -54 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Barrel allowed4.7%
88 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo90.4
5
Hard-hit allowed31.6%
91
Whiff%18.8%
16 -41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+99
31
Slider Stuff+100
34
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Cutter Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lopez, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.306 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lopez, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.5%Slider: 30.5%Cutter: 19.5%Changeup: 9.7%Sinker: 5.8% FF35% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 30%FC 20%CH 10%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.6 mphFF91 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 77.2 mphSL77 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.4 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.3 mphCH83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.8% 331 99 qualified
SL 30.4% 297 100 qualified
FC 19.7% 193 99 limited sample
CH 10.4% 102 103 limited sample
SI 5.6% 55 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.263 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Slider 31%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.88
K% Δ-0.082
Sample56.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.4----
Batters Faced292----
K%24.8%19.6% to 29.5%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.3%6.2% to 12.5%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%24.0%20.0% to 28.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.590.93 to 2.01+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3150.274 to 0.332+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.1% to 10.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.952.60 to 6.28+/- 1.84
FIP4.113.16 to 5.93+/- 1.39
WHIP1.2941.016 to 1.621+/- 0.302
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

119 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%23.4%
BB%7.5%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

386 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%22.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.0%