Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| Debut | 2025-05-26 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Victor Mesa Jr.
RF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 11", 195 lb · Age 24
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .188 | .297 | .344 | .641 |
| 2026 | 104 | 13 | 19 | 5 | 3 | .213 | .311 | .404 | .715 |
| 2 Seasons | 142 | 20 | 25 | 6 | 3 | .207 | .307 | .388 | .695 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.234
0.261
0.291
0.321
0.347
wOBA
0.258
0.286
0.317
0.347
0.375
ISO
0.087
0.117
0.150
0.184
0.214
K%
12.7%
16.4%
20.6%
24.7%
28.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
61
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
24
Hard-hit%38.8%
49
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.311
54
BB%12.5%
87
+56 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%23.1%
45
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · RF
61
Arm Strength95.6 · RF
71
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs2.4 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
65
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.6% · rebadged research
96
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
25 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Jr.’s wOBA sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.311 — a gap of 0.006, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 104 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.300 xwOBA | 7 HR | Projection |