Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Mesa Jr.., Victor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.234
0.261
0.291
0.321
0.347
wOBA
0.258
0.286
0.317
0.347
0.375
ISO
0.087
0.117
0.150
0.184
0.214
K%
12.7%
16.4%
20.6%
24.7%
28.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
61
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
24
Hard-hit%38.8%
49
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.311
54
BB%12.5%
87
+56 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%23.1%
45
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · RF
61
Arm Strength95.6 · RF
71
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs2.4 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
65
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.6% · rebadged research
96
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
25 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 104 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 219 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.156 to 0.313 | +/- 0.079 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.054 to 0.235 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 18.0% to 46.2% | +/- 14.1% |
| K% | 21.1% | 7.8% to 30.5% | +/- 11.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.0% to 10.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.162 to 0.316 | +/- 0.077 |
vs LHP
12 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.043 |
| K% | 2.1% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
33 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.047 |
| K% | 2.0% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |