Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	86	13	21	0	3	.273	.326	.325	.651
2025	104	13	25	0	2	.260	.317	.344	.661
2026	185	24	42	3	0	.271	.370	.413	.783
3 Seasons	375	50	88	3	5	.268	.345	.372	.717

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

34

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

43

Defense3 metrics

54

Speed1 metrics

57

Plate skills10 metrics

49

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01

xwOBA preseason	0.294
xwOBA current pace	0.323
xwOBA rolling p50	0.308
Observed weight	47%

xwOBA

0.271 0.288 0.308 0.327 0.345

wOBA

0.323 0.344 0.367 0.391 0.412

ISO

0.086 0.104 0.124 0.144 0.163

K%

16.6% 18.3% 20.1% 22.0% 23.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.1%

25

Exit velocity82.2

5

Hard-hit%27.9%

11 -15 vs proj

xBA0.326

59

xSLG0.463

35

xwOBA0.323

72 +31 vs proj

BB%13.5%

94 +72 vs proj

Bat speed65.8

11

K%17.7%

79 +35 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength83.9 · 2B

24

Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B

72

Range Runs0.9 · 2B

65

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.7 · 2B

57

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-01

Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research

88

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research

24

Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research

53

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline

75

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample

39

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample

4

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample

81

Resists FastballwOBA 0.414 · validated

1

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated

52

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

72

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Sogard's production (87) outpaces the tools grade (80) by 7 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.367

xwOBA (deserved)0.323

Sogard’s wOBA sits at 0.367, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.044, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 192 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-08-23	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	17	2026-08-31	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.667

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA \| 5 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K, RBI

Age	28
Height	6' 1"
Weight	189 lb
Debut	2024-08-02

xwOBA Δ	+0.027
wOBA Δ	+0.071

Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA \| 5 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K, RBI

Nick Sogard

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail