Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Sogard, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 17% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.268
0.294
0.321
0.344
wOBA
0.258
0.300
0.348
0.395
0.437
ISO
0.054
0.080
0.110
0.139
0.165
K%
15.7%
18.0%
20.6%
23.2%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs1.1 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
29 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.215 to 0.331 | +/- 0.058 |
| ISO | 0.136 | 0.056 to 0.188 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 3.4% | 0.7% to 5.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.0% | 21.6% to 43.3% | +/- 10.9% |
| K% | 24.0% | 17.7% to 29.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 2.9% to 9.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.246 to 0.354 | +/- 0.054 |
vs LHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.140 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |
vs RHP
167 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.134 |
| K% | 12.4% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |