Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026

Sogard, Nick

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.296 xwOBA
Range
0.215 to 0.331
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
31
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
41
Defense3 metrics
56
Speed1 metrics
57
Plate skills10 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.318
xwOBA rolling p500.304
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.267 0.285 0.304 0.324 0.341
wOBA
0.317 0.338 0.362 0.386 0.407
ISO
0.084 0.103 0.123 0.143 0.161
K%
16.8% 18.5% 20.4% 22.3% 24.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
Exit velocity82.0
4
Hard-hit%27.4%
10 -16 vs proj
xBA0.318
50
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.318
66 +27 vs proj
BB%14.0%
95 +72 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
11
K%18.3%
75 +32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.9 · 2B
23
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs2.0 · 2B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.7 · 2B
57
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.1% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.411 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
74
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Sogard, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.318 2026-08-20: 0.3132026-08-21: 0.3132026-08-22: 0.3132026-08-23: 0.3132026-08-24: 0.3132026-08-25: 0.3312026-08-26: 0.3312026-08-27: 0.3232026-08-28: 0.3232026-08-29: 0.3232026-08-30: 0.3182026-08-31: 0.318 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Sogard's production (87) outpaces the tools grade (80) by 7 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

87 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Sogard, Nick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 310 CF 390 RF 302 2026-03-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -14.02026-03-15 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 32.02026-03-17 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -53.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 9.02026-05-17 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -32.02026-05-17 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 22.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 1.02026-05-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 22.4 / LA -10.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA -3.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.5 / LA -24.02026-05-19 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 13.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -13.02026-05-20 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 16.02026-05-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.2 / LA 18.02026-05-22 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 68.0 / LA 36.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 43.02026-05-23 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -3.02026-05-24 · field out · ST · popup · EV 78.1 / LA 77.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 22.02026-05-24 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 17.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 45.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -14.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 6.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.7 / LA -35.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -15.02026-05-27 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 24.1 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.9 / LA -37.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 58.02026-07-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 2.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 24.02026-08-02 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 0.02026-08-02 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 41.02026-08-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.9 / LA -26.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 59.8 / LA 56.02026-08-04 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.6 / LA 33.02026-08-04 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 24.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 59.02026-08-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 66.5 / LA 20.02026-08-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA -48.02026-08-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 30.5 / LA 26.02026-08-08 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 20.02026-08-08 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 21.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -24.02026-08-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 12.02026-08-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.0 / LA -21.02026-08-13 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 26.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 40.02026-08-13 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 23.02026-08-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 80.7 / LA 39.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -26.02026-08-14 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 49.02026-08-14 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 20.02026-08-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -4.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.4 / LA 83.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 41.6 / LA -56.02026-08-17 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 42.02026-08-17 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 26.02026-08-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 12.02026-08-17 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 25.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.8 / LA 73.02026-08-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 37.02026-08-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -7.02026-08-19 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 9.02026-08-21 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 4.02026-08-21 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 3.02026-08-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -21.02026-08-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 18.02026-08-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -13.02026-08-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 30.02026-08-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 3.02026-08-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 18.02026-08-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -8.02026-08-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 27.02026-08-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 71.1 / LA 82.02026-08-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA -18.02026-08-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.5 / LA -53.02026-08-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 70.2 / LA 43.02026-08-29 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 18.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 42.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 42.02026-08-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 27.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · popup · EV 26.2 / LA 59.02026-08-29 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 13.02026-08-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -1.02026-08-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 15.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Sogard, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.022
wOBA Δ+0.066
Sample186 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances273----
Home Runs5----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2960.215 to 0.331+/- 0.058
ISO0.1370.056 to 0.188+/- 0.066
Barrel%3.4%0.7% to 5.5%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%33.0%21.6% to 43.3%+/- 10.9%
K%24.0%17.7% to 29.3%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.1%2.9% to 9.4%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.3030.246 to 0.354+/- 0.054
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

67 career PA

xwOBA0.140
K%12.0%
BB%3.1%
Barrel1.3%
vs RHP

167 career PA

xwOBA0.134
K%12.4%
BB%3.0%
Barrel1.1%