Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Francisco Giants Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Francisco Giants

Trevor McDonald

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 25

Cards
9
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Francisco Giants Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024000.001003.010.33
2025101.8032015.0141.00
2026375.021313066.1541.30
3 Seasons474.271715084.1691.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace5.02
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.54 3.37 4.28 5.20 6.02
FIP
2.76 3.23 3.75 4.27 4.73
K%
15.9% 17.6% 19.4% 21.2% 22.9%
BB%
4.6% 5.6% 6.6% 7.7% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
45
ERA5.02
25
BB%6.9%
77
K%18.8%
26 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
58 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.7%
88 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
35
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
53
Whiff%21.0%
34 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Slider Stuff+102
46
Changeup Stuff+95
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McDonald, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3122026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.3062026-07-18: 0.3062026-07-19: 0.306 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McDonald, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.0%Slider: 26.5%Changeup: 14.6%4-Seam Fastball: 1.0%Cutter: 0.9% SI57% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 57%SL 27%CH 15%FF 1%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 59.2% 450 105 qualified
SL 27.1% 206 102 qualified
CH 13.4% 102 95 limited sample
FC 0.3% 2 24 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 0"
Weight205 lb
Debut2024-09-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.60
K% Δ-0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.360
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.306

McDonald’s wOBA-against sits at 0.360, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.054, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 68 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching92026-07-12Sinker played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.3% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-03-21 vs CLE5 ER / 2 K0.2 IP
2026-03-18 @ LAD2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP