Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

McDonald, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
12.3% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace4.34
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.91 2.76 3.70 4.65 5.50
FIP
2.45 2.94 3.48 4.03 4.52
K%
16.1% 18.4% 20.9% 23.5% 25.7%
BB%
2.9% 4.2% 5.6% 7.0% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.5%
97 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
77 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed44.4%
21
K%22.4%
50
Whiff%25.7%
69
xwOBA allowed0.307
57 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McDonald, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3092026-05-21: 0.3092026-05-23: 0.3182026-05-24: 0.3182026-05-25: 0.3182026-05-26: 0.3182026-05-28: 0.3072026-05-29: 0.3072026-05-30: 0.3072026-05-31: 0.3072026-06-01: 0.3072026-06-02: 0.307 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McDonald, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 59.5%Slider: 27.4%Changeup: 12.4%Cutter: 0.6% MIX SI 60%SL 27%CH 12%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.5SISL: HB -0.3, IVB 3.4SLCH: HB -0.9, IVB 3.1CHFC: HB -0.2, IVB 2.3FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 60.1% 255 104 qualified
SL 26.9% 114 105 limited sample
CH 12.5% 53 97 limited sample
FC 0.5% 2 29 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, Sinker 39%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.06
K% Δ+0.011
Sample30.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings58.7----
Batters Faced238----
K%21.3%12.3% to 26.4%+/- 7.0%
BB%7.5%1.8% to 9.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%17.0% to 30.3%+/- 6.6%
HR/91.180.36 to 1.67+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.203 to 0.373+/- 0.085
Barrel% Allowed8.2%2.5% to 10.1%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.400.53 to 5.42+/- 2.45
FIP3.921.93 to 4.75+/- 1.41
WHIP1.1680.642 to 1.655+/- 0.507
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

28 career BF

xwOBA0.198
K%14.4%
BB%3.4%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.184
K%15.8%
BB%2.5%
Barrel3.6%