Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

McDonald, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
12.3% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-20
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace5.02
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.54 3.37 4.28 5.20 6.02
FIP
2.75 3.22 3.75 4.28 4.75
K%
15.9% 17.5% 19.4% 21.2% 22.9%
BB%
4.6% 5.6% 6.6% 7.7% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
44
ERA5.02
25
BB%6.9%
77
K%18.8%
26 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
58 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.7%
88 +46 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
35
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
52
Whiff%21.0%
34 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-20
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Slider Stuff+102
46
Changeup Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McDonald, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3122026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.3062026-07-18: 0.3062026-07-19: 0.3062026-07-20: 0.306 2026-07-09 2026-07-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McDonald, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.0%Slider: 26.5%Changeup: 14.6%4-Seam Fastball: 1.0%Cutter: 0.9% SI57% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 57%SL 27%CH 15%FF 1%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 59.2% 450 105 qualified
SL 27.1% 206 102 qualified
CH 13.4% 102 95 limited sample
FC 0.3% 2 24 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, Sinker 39%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.62
K% Δ-0.024
Sample68.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings58.8----
Batters Faced239----
K%21.3%12.3% to 26.4%+/- 7.0%
BB%7.5%1.8% to 9.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%17.0% to 30.3%+/- 6.6%
HR/91.180.36 to 1.67+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.203 to 0.373+/- 0.085
Barrel% Allowed8.2%2.5% to 10.1%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.400.53 to 5.42+/- 2.45
FIP3.921.93 to 4.75+/- 1.41
WHIP1.1680.642 to 1.655+/- 0.507
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

28 career BF

xwOBA0.198
K%14.4%
BB%3.4%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.184
K%15.8%
BB%2.5%
Barrel3.6%