Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Louis Varland

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 205 lb · Age 28

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024067.61167049.2491.69
2025432.97741072.2751.20
2026310.493301236.2480.95
5 Seasons12154.061452312253.02641.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
89
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace0.28
ERA rolling p502.66
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.53 2.06 2.66 3.26 3.79
FIP
2.20 2.67 3.19 3.71 4.17
K%
23.8% 25.7% 27.9% 30.1% 32.0%
BB%
5.2% 6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.96
93
ERA0.28
100
BB%6.8%
75
K%34.2%
97 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.217
99 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.4%
98 +64 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
96
Hard-hit allowed34.1%
80
Whiff%24.4%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Fastball Stuff+108
88
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Curveball Stuff+102
61
Sinker Stuff+95
14
Slider Stuff+112
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Louis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.217 2026-06-01: 0.2142026-06-02: 0.2142026-06-03: 0.2142026-06-04: 0.2142026-06-05: 0.2162026-06-06: 0.2162026-06-07: 0.2162026-06-08: 0.2122026-06-09: 0.2122026-06-10: 0.2122026-06-11: 0.2172026-06-12: 0.217 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Louis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.6%Knuckle Curve: 28.7%Changeup: 15.4%Slider: 9.8%Sinker: 3.5% FF43% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 43%KC 29%CH 15%SL 10%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.4 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 87.0 mphKC87 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.7 mphCH93 mphSlider: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.5 mphSL92 mphSinker: 4% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.5 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.2% 225 108 qualified
CB 28.8% 150 102 limited sample
CH 14.8% 77 111 limited sample
SL 9.4% 49 112 limited sample
SI 3.8% 20 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 1"
Weight205 lb
Debut2022-09-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-3.74
K% Δ+0.097

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.253
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.217

Varland’s wOBA-against sits at 0.253, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.217 — a gap of 0.036, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12025-10-08Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.5% K | 4.02 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ NYY1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ LAA0 ER / 3 K1.1 IP
2026-04-14 @ MIL0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-12 vs MIN0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs LAD0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP