Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Varland, Louis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-18
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace1.24
ERA rolling p502.49
Observed weight56%
ERA
1.19 1.81 2.49 3.18 3.79
FIP
1.96 2.41 2.92 3.43 3.89
K%
25.3% 26.9% 28.5% 30.2% 31.7%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
94
ERA1.24
99
BB%7.1%
76
K%32.0%
96 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.236
99 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
91 +64 vs proj
Fastball velo98.7
98
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
65
Whiff%26.1%
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-18
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Changeup Stuff+108
93
Sinker Stuff+88
3
Slider Stuff+110
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Louis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.236 2026-09-04: 0.2302026-09-05: 0.2302026-09-06: 0.2302026-09-07: 0.2302026-09-08: 0.2352026-09-09: 0.2352026-09-10: 0.2322026-09-11: 0.2322026-09-12: 0.2322026-09-13: 0.2322026-09-14: 0.2322026-09-18: 0.236 2026-09-04 2026-09-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Louis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Knuckle Curve: 30.3%Changeup: 17.9%Slider: 8.1%Sinker: 2.4% FF41% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 41%KC 30%CH 18%SL 8%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.8 mphFF99 mphKnuckle Curve: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 87.6 mphKC88 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.1 mphCH93 mphSlider: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.0 mphSL92 mphSinker: 2% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.0% 350 108 qualified
CB 29.4% 245 104 qualified
CH 17.3% 144 108 limited sample
SL 8.2% 68 110 limited sample
SI 3.1% 26 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 37%, Slider 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.78
K% Δ+0.075
Sample78.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.6----
Batters Faced302----
K%24.5%18.9% to 30.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 10.3%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%25.5%20.9% to 30.8%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.370.90 to 2.53+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.3050.269 to 0.358+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed9.0%5.9% to 13.7%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.022.52 to 6.17+/- 1.82
FIP3.933.08 to 5.79+/- 1.36
WHIP1.2451.044 to 1.659+/- 0.307
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

466 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%21.0%
BB%6.5%
Barrel11.5%
vs RHH

588 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%22.7%
BB%7.5%
Barrel10.1%