Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 37%, Slider 7%.
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026
Varland, Louis
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.11 |
| ERA current pace | 0.31 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.78 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
ERA
1.59
2.16
2.78
3.40
3.96
FIP
2.23
2.71
3.23
3.76
4.24
K%
23.8%
25.9%
28.1%
30.3%
32.3%
BB%
5.2%
6.1%
7.1%
8.1%
9.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
74
Barrel allowed2.7%
96
+62 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
79
K%35.7%
99
+36 vs proj
Whiff%24.8%
63
xwOBA allowed0.214
99
+40 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
43%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 43.7% | 213 | 108 | qualified |
| CB | 29.2% | 142 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 13.1% | 64 | 111 | limited sample |
| SL | 9.9% | 48 | 112 | limited sample |
| SI | 4.1% | 20 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -3.71 |
| K% Δ | +0.112 |
| Sample | 33.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 69.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 300 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.5% | 18.9% to 30.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.3% to 10.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 25.5% | 20.9% to 30.8% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.90 to 2.53 | +/- 0.82 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.305 | 0.269 to 0.358 | +/- 0.044 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.0% | 5.9% to 13.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 4.02 | 2.52 to 6.17 | +/- 1.82 |
| FIP | 3.93 | 3.08 to 5.79 | +/- 1.36 |
| WHIP | 1.245 | 1.044 to 1.659 | +/- 0.307 |
vs LHH
466 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.327 |
| K% | 21.0% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 11.5% |
vs RHH
588 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 10.1% |