Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Justin Sterner

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 215 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024002.252004.041.50
2025433.18591065.0701.05
2026233.38330132.0301.03
3 Seasons663.219411101.01041.06
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace3.30
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.45 3.04 3.69 4.34 4.93
FIP
2.98 3.45 3.98 4.50 4.97
K%
20.3% 22.1% 24.1% 26.2% 28.0%
BB%
5.0% 6.1% 7.3% 8.4% 9.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
87
ERA3.30
62
BB%5.6%
91 +40 vs proj
K%23.8%
58
xwOBA allowed0.244
97 +47 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
75 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
29
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
16
Whiff%27.9%
83 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+97
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sterner, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.244 2026-06-01: 0.2542026-06-02: 0.2542026-06-03: 0.2542026-06-04: 0.2482026-06-05: 0.2472026-06-06: 0.2472026-06-07: 0.2472026-06-08: 0.2472026-06-09: 0.2472026-06-10: 0.2442026-06-11: 0.2442026-06-12: 0.244 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sterner, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sterner, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.0%Cutter: 30.5%Sweeper: 29.5% FF40% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FC 31%ST 30% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sterner, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.0% 175 104 limited sample
FC 30.4% 133 106 limited sample
SL 29.5% 129 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight215 lb
Debut2024-05-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ-0.007

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.283
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.244

Sterner’s wOBA-against sits at 0.283, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.244 — a gap of 0.039, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 31 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.6% K | 3.89 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs CWS0 ER / 4 K2.1 IP
2026-04-14 vs TEX0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ NYM1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 @ NYY0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ NYY0 ER / 1 K2.0 IP