Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Cutter 32%, Sweeper 16%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Sterner, Justin
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.89 |
| ERA current pace | 4.89 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.32 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
ERA
3.12
3.69
4.32
4.95
5.51
FIP
3.61
4.07
4.58
5.09
5.54
K%
20.2%
21.9%
23.7%
25.6%
27.2%
BB%
5.3%
6.2%
7.3%
8.4%
9.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
60
ERA4.89
27
BB%6.1%
85
+33 vs proj
K%22.9%
53
xwOBA allowed0.286
76
+25 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.5%
25
Fastball velo93.5
33
Hard-hit allowed46.0%
9
Whiff%27.2%
80
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Cutter Stuff+105
77
Fastball Stuff+104
69
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+99
32
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.2% | 188 | 104 | limited sample |
| FC | 30.8% | 144 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 29.1% | 136 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.00 |
| K% Δ | -0.016 |
| Sample | 42.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 63.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 264 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.6% to 30.3% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.6% to 11.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 21.2% to 32.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.42 | 1.01 to 2.18 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.314 | 0.264 to 0.341 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.2% to 12.2% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 3.89 | 2.13 to 5.47 | +/- 1.67 |
| FIP | 4.25 | 2.95 to 5.66 | +/- 1.35 |
| WHIP | 1.254 | 0.947 to 1.584 | +/- 0.319 |
vs LHH
129 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |
vs RHH
183 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 8.9% |