Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Cutter 32%, Sweeper 16%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Sterner, Justin
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.89 |
| ERA current pace | 3.81 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.87 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
ERA
2.61
3.21
3.87
4.53
5.12
FIP
3.06
3.54
4.07
4.60
5.08
K%
20.0%
21.9%
24.0%
26.1%
27.9%
BB%
5.2%
6.3%
7.5%
8.7%
9.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
85
+32 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
71
+32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
29
Hard-hit allowed47.6%
8
K%23.3%
55
Whiff%27.3%
79
xwOBA allowed0.254
92
+43 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
41%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.6% | 171 | 104 | limited sample |
| FC | 30.2% | 127 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 29.2% | 123 | 97 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.08 |
| K% Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 28.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 63.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 266 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.6% to 30.3% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.6% to 11.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 21.2% to 32.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.42 | 1.01 to 2.18 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.314 | 0.264 to 0.341 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.2% to 12.2% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 3.89 | 2.13 to 5.47 | +/- 1.67 |
| FIP | 4.25 | 2.95 to 5.66 | +/- 1.35 |
| WHIP | 1.254 | 0.947 to 1.584 | +/- 0.319 |
vs LHH
129 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |
vs RHH
183 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 8.9% |