Mithrandir Metrics
Player Miami Marlins Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Miami Marlins

Ryan Gusto

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 232 lb · Age 27

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Miami Marlins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025775.6727170101.2971.48
2026133.861914067.2571.33
2 Seasons8104.9446310169.11541.42
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal7 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace4.37
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.23 3.84 4.52 5.20 5.81
FIP
3.34 3.68 4.05 4.42 4.75
K%
17.6% 19.0% 20.5% 22.0% 23.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
51
ERA4.37
41
BB%6.7%
81 +21 vs proj
K%19.1%
29 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
36
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo94.2
45
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
19
Whiff%18.9%
19 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-02
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Curveball Stuff+105
89
Cutter Stuff+106
87
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+107
88
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gusto, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.325 2026-08-22: 0.3172026-08-23: 0.3172026-08-24: 0.3172026-08-25: 0.3192026-08-26: 0.3192026-08-27: 0.3262026-08-28: 0.3262026-08-29: 0.3262026-08-30: 0.3262026-08-31: 0.3262026-09-01: 0.3252026-09-02: 0.325 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gusto, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.2%Changeup: 14.4%Sinker: 13.1%Cutter: 13.0%Sweeper: 12.8%Slider: 10.8% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 14%SI 13%FC 13%ST 13%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphSinker: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCutter: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.1% 153 108 limited sample
SL 23.4% 119 107 limited sample
CH 14.5% 74 101 limited sample
SI 11.8% 60 106 limited sample
FC 11.6% 59 106 limited sample
CB 8.6% 44 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 4"
Weight232 lb
Debut2025-03-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.29
K% Δ-0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.332
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.325

Gusto’s wOBA-against sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.325 — a gap of 0.008, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 67 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-08-31Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.5% K | 4.66 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ CIN2 ER / 6 K4.2 IP
2026-04-08 vs CIN0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP