Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Gusto, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.69
ERA current pace5.13
ERA rolling p504.84
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.48 4.12 4.84 5.56 6.20
FIP
3.40 3.75 4.14 4.53 4.88
K%
17.2% 19.1% 21.2% 23.3% 25.2%
BB%
5.9% 6.9% 7.9% 9.0% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
21
ERA5.13
22
BB%8.3%
57
K%19.0%
26 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.346
19
Barrel allowed9.3%
27
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
16
Whiff%19.6%
22 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gusto, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.346 2026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3582026-07-11: 0.3582026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3462026-07-14: 0.3462026-07-15: 0.3462026-07-16: 0.3462026-07-17: 0.3462026-07-18: 0.346 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gusto, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.3%Changeup: 19.2%Sinker: 13.9%Sweeper: 13.0%Cutter: 12.8%Slider: 9.8% FF25% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 25%CH 19%SI 14%ST 13%FC 13%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSinker: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphCutter: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.2% 37 103 limited sample
CH 23.5% 32 100 limited sample
SL 22.8% 31 101 limited sample
SI 11.0% 15 108 limited sample
FC 11.0% 15 103 limited sample
CB 4.4% 6 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.257 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Curveball 15%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.48
K% Δ-0.024
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced308----
K%21.5%16.6% to 27.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.1%5.5% to 10.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.5%18.7% to 27.4%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.330.84 to 2.15+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3330.268 to 0.360+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.8%4.2% to 11.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.663.18 to 6.83+/- 1.83
FIP4.342.99 to 4.98+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3181.077 to 1.681+/- 0.302
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

244 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%18.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel10.1%
vs RHH

223 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%19.1%
BB%6.0%
Barrel6.9%