Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Gusto, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal7 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace4.37
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.23 3.84 4.52 5.20 5.81
FIP
3.34 3.68 4.05 4.42 4.75
K%
17.6% 19.0% 20.5% 22.0% 23.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
51
ERA4.37
41
BB%6.7%
81 +21 vs proj
K%19.1%
29 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
36
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo94.2
45
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
19
Whiff%18.9%
19 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Curveball Stuff+105
89
Cutter Stuff+106
87
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+107
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gusto, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.325 2026-08-22: 0.3172026-08-23: 0.3172026-08-24: 0.3172026-08-25: 0.3192026-08-26: 0.3192026-08-27: 0.3262026-08-28: 0.3262026-08-29: 0.3262026-08-30: 0.3262026-08-31: 0.3262026-09-01: 0.3252026-09-02: 0.325 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gusto, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.2%Changeup: 14.4%Sinker: 13.1%Cutter: 13.0%Sweeper: 12.8%Slider: 10.8% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 14%SI 13%FC 13%ST 13%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphSinker: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCutter: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.1% 153 108 limited sample
SL 23.4% 119 107 limited sample
CH 14.5% 74 101 limited sample
SI 11.8% 60 106 limited sample
FC 11.6% 59 106 limited sample
CB 8.6% 44 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.257 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Curveball 15%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.29
K% Δ-0.024
Sample67.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.7----
Batters Faced304----
K%21.5%16.6% to 27.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.1%5.5% to 10.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.5%18.7% to 27.4%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.330.84 to 2.15+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3330.268 to 0.360+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.8%4.2% to 11.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.663.18 to 6.83+/- 1.83
FIP4.342.99 to 4.98+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3191.077 to 1.681+/- 0.302
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

244 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%18.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel10.1%
vs RHH

223 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%19.1%
BB%6.0%
Barrel6.9%