Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 27

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024256.521010049.2461.63
20258115.3028280156.11311.39
2026564.1218180102.2861.25
5 Seasons29304.4997960537.14381.33
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace4.12
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.17 3.70 4.28 4.86 5.38
FIP
3.80 4.06 4.35 4.64 4.91
K%
17.7% 18.8% 20.0% 21.1% 22.2%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
59
ERA4.12
47
BB%7.3%
71
K%19.7%
30
xwOBA allowed0.303
62 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
15
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
44
Whiff%19.9%
24 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Cutter Stuff+100
32
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Elder, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-07: 0.2962026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2962026-07-10: 0.2962026-07-11: 0.3032026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.3032026-07-17: 0.3032026-07-18: 0.303 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Elder, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 27.3%Sinker: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.1%Cutter: 14.6%Changeup: 8.8% SL27% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 27%SI 26%FF 23%FC 15%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphSinker: 26% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.5 mphFF93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.6 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 27.8% 311 101 qualified
SI 25.4% 285 102 qualified
FB 24.6% 275 101 qualified
FC 12.4% 139 100 limited sample
CH 9.8% 110 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2022-04-12
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ-0.005

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.316
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.303

Elder’s wOBA-against sits at 0.316, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.013, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 101 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-09Cutter played up through SL/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.2% K | 4.75 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 @ WSH3 ER / 6 K6.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 ER / 7 K5.2 IP
2026-04-04 @ AZ0 ER / 8 K7.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs ATH0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP