Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Elder, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
16.1% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace4.12
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.17 3.70 4.28 4.86 5.38
FIP
3.80 4.06 4.35 4.64 4.91
K%
17.7% 18.8% 20.0% 21.1% 22.2%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
59
ERA4.12
47
BB%7.3%
71
K%19.7%
30
xwOBA allowed0.303
62 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
15
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
44
Whiff%19.9%
24 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Cutter Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Elder, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-07: 0.2962026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2962026-07-10: 0.2962026-07-11: 0.3032026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.3032026-07-17: 0.3032026-07-18: 0.303 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Elder, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 27.3%Sinker: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.1%Cutter: 14.6%Changeup: 8.8% SL27% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 27%SI 26%FF 23%FC 15%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphSinker: 26% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.5 mphFF93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.6 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 27.8% 311 101 qualified
SI 25.4% 285 102 qualified
FB 24.6% 275 101 qualified
FC 12.4% 139 100 limited sample
CH 9.8% 110 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ-0.005
Sample101.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.4----
Batters Faced326----
K%20.2%16.1% to 24.8%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.5%5.6% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%22.9%19.1% to 26.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.490.93 to 2.05+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3240.295 to 0.345+/- 0.025
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.7% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.753.57 to 6.57+/- 1.50
FIP4.253.44 to 4.94+/- 0.75
WHIP1.3591.147 to 1.630+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

967 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%17.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

949 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.1%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.4%