Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Elder, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
16.1% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace2.50
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.36 2.87 3.43 3.99 4.50
FIP
3.24 3.49 3.77 4.05 4.30
K%
18.0% 19.3% 20.6% 22.0% 23.2%
BB%
6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.5%
68
Barrel allowed3.4%
93 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
18
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
52
K%20.7%
37
Whiff%20.3%
27 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.284
75 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Elder, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2782026-05-19: 0.2782026-05-21: 0.2782026-05-23: 0.2762026-05-24: 0.2762026-05-25: 0.2762026-05-26: 0.2762026-05-28: 0.2852026-05-29: 0.2842026-05-30: 0.2842026-05-31: 0.2842026-06-01: 0.284 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Elder, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 28.3%4-Seam Fastball: 25.4%Sinker: 24.5%Cutter: 11.7%Changeup: 10.1% MIX SL 28%FF 25%SI 25%FC 12%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.1, IVB 3.6SLFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.4FFSI: HB 0.6, IVB 2.1SIFC: HB 0.1, IVB 1.9FCCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.8CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.3% 292 100 qualified
FB 25.4% 262 101 qualified
SI 24.5% 253 102 qualified
FC 11.7% 121 100 limited sample
CH 10.1% 104 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.25
K% Δ+0.005
Sample71.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.5----
Batters Faced323----
K%20.2%16.1% to 24.8%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.5%5.6% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%22.9%19.1% to 26.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.490.93 to 2.05+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3240.295 to 0.345+/- 0.025
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.6% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.753.57 to 6.57+/- 1.50
FIP4.253.44 to 4.94+/- 0.75
WHIP1.3591.147 to 1.630+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

967 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%17.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

949 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.1%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.4%