Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2025-07-11 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Brice Matthews
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 190 lb · Age 24
Club Houston Astros
Position CF
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .167 | .222 | .452 | .674 |
| 2026 | 226 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 4 | .197 | .250 | .332 | .582 |
| 2 Seasons | 273 | 29 | 48 | 11 | 5 | .192 | .245 | .352 | .597 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
32
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.278 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.260 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.269 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.228
0.247
0.269
0.290
0.310
wOBA
0.272
0.290
0.310
0.330
0.349
ISO
0.108
0.130
0.154
0.178
0.199
K%
23.2%
26.3%
29.7%
33.1%
36.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
55
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity83.9
10
Hard-hit%37.2%
43
xBA0.292
22
xSLG0.519
53
xwOBA0.260
11
-29 vs proj
BB%8.3%
47
+26 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
41
K%30.7%
14
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · CF
75
Arm Strength93.8 · CF
58
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs4.4 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · CF
16
Bolts1.0 · CF
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
3
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
41
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
109 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.013 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Matthews’s wOBA sits at 0.310, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.260 — a gap of 0.050, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 241 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowser, Colton BAL · L | 0.66 | In-zone contactHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Yelich, Christian MIL · L | 0.66 | Max exit velocityIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Taveras, Leody BAL · L | 0.62 | Avg exit velocityBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Gelof, Zack ATH · R | 0.60 | Chase ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-15 vs COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-14 vs COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |