Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Matthews, Brice
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.278 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.265 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.273 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.226
0.248
0.273
0.297
0.319
wOBA
0.290
0.312
0.336
0.360
0.382
ISO
0.101
0.126
0.154
0.182
0.207
K%
22.1%
25.7%
29.7%
33.7%
37.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
59
+38 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
45
-25 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
34
Exit velocity86.0
22
Hard-hit%40.0%
49
K%31.2%
10
xBA0.299
30
xSLG0.527
55
xwOBA0.265
14
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
30
Arm Strength93.8 · CF
65
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs3.4 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · CF
17
Sprint Speed28.3 · CF
78
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions71.5% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 170 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 224 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.170 to 0.322 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.070 to 0.251 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 2.3% to 8.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 19.6% to 49.6% | +/- 15.0% |
| K% | 31.4% | 14.3% to 40.4% | +/- 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 1.5% to 9.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.196 to 0.320 | +/- 0.062 |
vs LHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.050 |
| K% | 6.7% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
36 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.050 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |