Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	336	43	78	9	14	.264	.354	.427	.781
2025	689	87	153	31	15	.256	.350	.475	.825
2026	459	91	104	28	15	.279	.410	.571	.981
3 Seasons	1484	221	335	68	44	.265	.369	.492	.861

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

100

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

90

Defense4 metrics

41

Speed4 metrics

62

Plate skills10 metrics

49

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.361
xwOBA current pace	0.437
xwOBA rolling p50	0.413
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.387 0.399 0.413 0.427 0.439

wOBA

0.410 0.424 0.439 0.455 0.468

ISO

0.228 0.241 0.256 0.271 0.284

K%

26.1% 27.2% 28.6% 29.9% 31.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%11.9%

99

Exit velocity95.1

100

Hard-hit%59.6%

99

xBA0.434

100

xSLG0.961

100

xwOBA0.437

100

BB%16.6%

99 +18 vs proj

Bat speed74.0

94

K%28.9%

19

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.6 · RF

71

Arm Strength95.7 · RF

72

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF

11

Range Runs-4.0 · RF

11

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.4 · RF

79

Bolts4.0 · RF

50

SB Success Rate85.7% · RF

67

Sprint Speed27.5 · RF

53

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5% · rebadged research

94

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research

39

Correct Decisions69.1% · rebadged research

79

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109

87

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.353 · borderline

0

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.249 · insufficient sample

98

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.322 · validated thin sample

2

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample

83

Resists FastballwOBA 0.411 · validated

1

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405 · validated

2

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

James Wood's tools (86) outpace production (72) by 14 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.439

xwOBA (deserved)0.437

Wood’s wOBA sits at 0.439, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.437 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 481 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Kurtz, Nick ATH · L	0.61	Hard-hit rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Judge, Aaron NYY · R	0.52	Barrel rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
De La Cruz, Elly CIN · L	0.46	In-zone contactStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Bauers, Jake MIL · L	0.42	Ground-ball rateChase rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	15	2026-07-12	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.367 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-17 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, 2 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, 3 K, R

Age	23
Height	6' 6"
Weight	234 lb
Debut	2024-07-01

xwOBA Δ	+0.070
wOBA Δ	+0.072

Hitter Projections 20260.367 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-20 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-17 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| HR, 2 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 BB, 3 K, R

James Wood

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail