Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

AJ Blubaugh

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 190 lb · Age 26

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025311.69113032.0350.88
2026423.75360060.0601.27
2 Seasons733.03473092.0951.13
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.50
ERA current pace3.75
ERA rolling p503.63
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.15 2.85 3.63 4.41 5.11
FIP
3.47 3.86 4.29 4.72 5.11
K%
22.0% 23.4% 25.1% 26.7% 28.2%
BB%
8.2% 9.2% 10.3% 11.4% 12.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
68
ERA3.75
56
BB%11.8%
18 -16 vs proj
K%24.0%
60
xwOBA allowed0.312
52
Barrel allowed7.6%
53 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed33.7%
84
Whiff%25.2%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Curveball Stuff+98
3
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Slider Stuff+104
67
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blubaugh, Aj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3142026-07-09: 0.3142026-07-10: 0.3142026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3122026-07-15: 0.3122026-07-16: 0.3122026-07-17: 0.312 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blubaugh, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.4%Changeup: 21.0%Sweeper: 20.7%Cutter: 6.3%Curveball: 1.5% FF50% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 21%ST 21%FC 6%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphCutter: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.0% 342 102 qualified
CH 25.6% 186 98 limited sample
SL 19.9% 145 104 limited sample
FC 5.6% 41 96 limited sample
CB 1.8% 13 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 2"
Weight190 lb
Debut2025-04-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.50
K% Δ-0.011

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.311
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.312

Blubaugh’s wOBA-against sits at 0.311, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.001, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 65 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.1% K | 4.25 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ CLE0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs COL1 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-11 @ SEA0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ COL5 ER / 0 K1.0 IP