Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Blubaugh, Aj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
21.9% to 32.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.49
ERA current pace3.06
ERA rolling p503.23
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.73 2.44 3.23 4.02 4.73
FIP
3.26 3.66 4.10 4.54 4.93
K%
22.6% 23.9% 25.4% 26.8% 28.1%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.06
80
BB%9.9%
39
K%24.7%
69
xwOBA allowed0.303
63
Barrel allowed9.2%
24
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
65
Whiff%26.1%
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+105
80
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Cutter Stuff+94
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blubaugh, Aj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-08-25: 0.3022026-08-26: 0.3022026-08-27: 0.3022026-08-28: 0.3012026-08-29: 0.3012026-08-30: 0.3012026-08-31: 0.2992026-09-01: 0.2992026-09-02: 0.2992026-09-03: 0.3042026-09-04: 0.3032026-09-05: 0.303 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blubaugh, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Sweeper: 22.1%Changeup: 20.9%Cutter: 5.2%Curveball: 1.1% FF51% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 51%ST 22%CH 21%FC 5%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blubaugh, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphCutter: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.0% 468 103 qualified
CH 24.4% 238 99 qualified
SL 21.3% 208 105 qualified
FC 5.0% 49 94 limited sample
CB 1.3% 13 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 55%, Sweeper 21%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.19
K% Δ-0.004
Sample91.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.3----
Batters Faced262----
K%25.1%21.9% to 32.8%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.9%5.9% to 12.5%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%26.5%21.5% to 31.2%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.431.04 to 2.16+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2960.239 to 0.320+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.251.13 to 5.31+/- 2.09
FIP4.343.00 to 5.31+/- 1.16
WHIP1.1580.706 to 1.438+/- 0.366
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%24.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

66 career BF

xwOBA0.215
K%23.8%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.1%