Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 55%, Sweeper 21%, Changeup 19%.
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026
Blubaugh, Aj
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team HOU
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.49 |
| ERA current pace | 4.81 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.05 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
ERA
2.55
3.26
4.05
4.83
5.54
FIP
3.83
4.22
4.66
5.10
5.49
K%
19.7%
21.4%
23.2%
25.1%
26.8%
BB%
8.2%
9.3%
10.5%
11.8%
12.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.2%
10
-25 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
51
+15 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
72
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
81
K%19.0%
24
-45 vs proj
Whiff%26.6%
75
xwOBA allowed0.336
31
-35 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
48%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 47.1% | 280 | 102 | qualified |
| CH | 25.6% | 152 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 20.4% | 121 | 104 | limited sample |
| FC | 4.7% | 28 | 97 | limited sample |
| CB | 2.2% | 13 | 97 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.56 |
| K% Δ | -0.061 |
| Sample | 41.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 64.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 258 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.1% | 21.9% to 32.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 5.9% to 12.5% | +/- 3.3% |
| Whiff% | 26.5% | 21.5% to 31.2% | +/- 4.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.43 | 1.04 to 2.16 | +/- 0.56 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.296 | 0.239 to 0.320 | +/- 0.041 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.9% | 5.1% to 12.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.25 | 1.13 to 5.31 | +/- 2.09 |
| FIP | 4.34 | 3.00 to 5.31 | +/- 1.16 |
| WHIP | 1.158 | 0.706 to 1.438 | +/- 0.366 |
vs LHH
59 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 24.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |
vs RHH
66 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |